2021 Market Preview

January 21, 2021 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research

2020 was a year like no other and has left investors across the world wondering what the future looks like. Will vaccines prove effective in halting a pandemic that spread like wildfire across the globe? What will the impact of a new administration in Washington be on economies and markets? How much additional stimulus will be injected into the economy? And most broadly, will things ever get back to “normal”? While there are no easy answers to these questions, 2021 promises to be another volatile year, most especially until there has been sufficient roll-out and distribution of vaccines to contain the COVID-19 outbreak that continues to haunt economic growth across the globe.

Remarkably, 2020 ended up as a positive year for financial markets despite a massive sell-off in the equity and credit markets during February and March. Paradoxically, 2021 may be a less eventful year but at the same time a lower overall return environment, given that much of the optimism about economic re-openings and stimulus has already been priced into the markets. Nonetheless, there are a variety of factors worth monitoring over the next year which will directly impact market returns. Similar to past years, we offer our 2021 market preview newsletters for each of the primary asset classes we cover, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance as well as trends, themes, opportunities, and risks to watch for in 2021.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year and beyond. We have also produced a 2021 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Should you have any questions about anything related to these materials, please feel free to reach out to any of us for further assistance. Here’s to a return to normalcy in 2021!

U.S. Economy: Are Better Days Ahead?
by Brandon Von Feldt, CFA, Research Analyst

Fixed Income: Poised for Further Recovery with Undertones of Exuberance
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Birth of a New Market
by Samantha T. Grant, CFA, CAIA, Assistant Vice President,
Colleen Flannery, Research Analyst, U.S. Equities, and
Evan Frazier, CAIA, Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Constructive but Cautious
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities, and
Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Global Equities

Hedge Funds: Poised for Another Record Year?
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives
and Jessica Noviskis, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Hedge Funds

Real Estate: Finding the New Normal
by Will DuPree, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: An Evolving Opportunity Set, but an Essential Allocation
by Will DuPree, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Private Equity: Both Quality and Growth Shine Brightly in 2020
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

Download the combined files > Traditional and Alternatives

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Partner, Director of Research

Get to Know Greg

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

Two-line chart showing Private Construction Spending for Data Centers and Public Construction Spending for Transportation from December 2013 to present in billions of dollars. Data Centers in 2013 were $1.6 billion and Transportation was $28.7 billion. Since 2022, Data Center spending has increased quickly; Transportation has increased overall but relatively steadily. April 30, 2026 data point for Data Centers was 50.7, while Transportation was 49.9. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

06.15.2026

Centers of Attention

The rapid buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure is reshaping the U.S. investment landscape. According to recent Census Bureau data, spending…

Line chart comparing Growth of $100 and Average Sharpe Ratio for MVIS BDC Index, Cliffwater Direct Lending Index as averages. Data goes back January 2010 through March 31, 2026. Average Sharpe for MVIS US BDC 0.4, Direct Lending 3.28, Bank Loan 0.79. Current datapoint for BDC is $425 and $479 for Direct Lending. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

06.08.2026

How to Launder Your Volatility

Hi, James Torgerson here! Volatility can be an unsightly blemish on portfolios and lead to inferior risk-adjusted returns. Private credit…

Column chart showing weight in MSCI Emerging Market Index for Taiwan, South Korea, and China annually since 2006. Taiwan hovered around 11% up to 2021, and has increased since then, with 2026 YTD at 26.5%. South Korea has followed a similar path, averaging about 14% 2006 to 2023; 2024 dropped to 9%, but 2025 was back up to 13.3%, and its weight has jumped to 23.1% YTD. China generally increased up to 2020, peaking at 29.7% of the index, but has since mostly decreased year to year, with 2026 YTD at 19.7%. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

06.01.2026

The New Face of Emerging Markets

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has undergone a significant structural transformation in recent years. For much of the past decade,…

05.26.2026

The Best and Worst of Times

The classic novel A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens begins with the line “It was the best of…

Four-line chart showing weight in Bloomberg Aggregate U.S. Bond Index for Treasuries, Government-Related, Corporate, and Securitized sub-indices, 12/31/1999 through 3/31/2026. For date range shown, Treasuries started at 31.7% and end at 45.9%. Government-Related start at 11.4% and end at 4.3%. Corporates start at 20.9% and end at 23.9%. Securitized start at 36.0% and end at 25.9%. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

05.18.2026

The “Magnificent One”

Over the last few years, equity markets have been defined by a group of stocks often referred to as the…

Combination column and line chart showing increase in non-renewables and renewables in net installed capacity (GW) in columns and share of new electricity generating capacity by renewables (line) annually since 2005. Renewables ave seen a marked increase in recent years (183.95GW in 2019 to 691.94GW in 2025). Renewable Share was at 86% for 2025. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

05.11.2026

A Renewed Focus on Renewables

In addition to the humanitarian toll of the conflict in Iran, the world is currently confronting the impact that trade…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >