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3Q 2023 Market Insights Video

October 13, 2023 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner

This video is a recording of a live webinar held on October 26 by Marquette’s research team, featuring in-depth analysis of the third quarter and themes we’ll be monitoring for the remainder of the year. Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Catherine Hillier, Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Associate Director
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Griffin Gildea, Research Associate
Hayley McCollum, Research Analyst
Brett Graffy, CAIA, Associate Director

 

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Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Director of Research, Managing Partner

Get to Know Greg

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Marquette is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Marquette including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination column and line chart comparing recent holiday spending by U.S. consumers. Chart subtitle: Spending is on track to reach record levels this holiday season, despite mounting economic pressures faced by American consumers. Chart source: Adobe Analytics and CNN Business as of October 31, 2023. Chart description: Left Y-axis is labeled “Spending” and ranges from $0B to $250B. Right Y-axis is labeled “YoY Growth” and ranges from 0% to 50%. X-axis labels each column: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 (Projected). Holiday Spending by U.S. Consumers is plotted in dark teal columns. Holiday Spending Growth is plotted with light purple line and markers. 2019 saw $143B in spending and 13.1% YoY growth; 2020 $188B, 32.1%; 2021 $205B, 8.7%; 2022 $212B, 3.5%, and 2023 is projected at $222B and 4.8%. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.30.2023

‘Tis the Season to Spend!

The holiday spending frenzy is well underway as some of the biggest shopping days of the year, including Black Friday…

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The Taming of the VIX

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination stacked column and line chart comparing unrealized gains/losses with effective federal funds rate. Chart subtitle: Unrealized losses across depository institutions have increased in recent quarters thanks to higher interest rates. Chart source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as of June 30, 2023. Chart description: Left Y-axis is labeled “Unrealized Gains/Losses” and ranges from -$800B to +$800B, corresponding to stacked columns. Right Y-axis is labeled “Rate” and ranges from -6% to +6%, corresponding to line. X-axis ranges from 1Q08 to 2Q23; labels are at 3-quarter increments to fit so last label is for 1Q23. Available-For-Sale Securities are plotted in dark green base of stacked columns; Held-To-Maturity Securities are plotted in lighter green as second half of column. Effect Federal Funds Rate line is plotted in light blue. Unrealized losses are at significant levels for chart losses; since the fed funds rate has increased since 1Q22, losses have totaled over $300B. Most recent datapoints, as of 2Q23 are as follows: Available-For-Sale Securities at -$248.9B, Held-To-Maturity Securities at -$309.6B, and Effective Federal Funds Rate at 5.3%. Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.08.2023

Realizing the Impact of Unrealized Losses

Earlier this year, the regional banking crisis and eventual collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, and…

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Three-line chart showing cumulative return for various U.S. equity indices. Chart subtitle: Domestic stock indices enter correction territory after recent slide. Chart source: Bloomberg as of October 31, 2023. Chart description: Y-axis is labeled “Cumulative Return” and ranges from -15% to +10%. X-axis is labeled in monthly increments, from Jun-23 to Oct-23. Data ranges 6/30/23 through 10/31/23. S&P 500 Index is plotted in orange line, Nasdaq-100 Index in light tan line, and Russell 2000 Index in dark purple line. Most recent data points, respectively, -5.31%, -4.84%, -11.61%. Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.01.2023

The Chart for Red October

U.S. equities declined for the third consecutive month in October amid an environment of higher yields and underwhelming earnings reports…

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Portfolio Trick or Treat

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination column and line chart showing job adds and U.S. unemployment rate. Chart subtitle: Nonfarm payrolls blew through consensus estimates in September, increasing by 336,000 during the month. Chart source: Bloomberg as of September 30, 2023. Chart description: Left Y-axis is labeled “Job Adds (Thousands)” and ranges from 0 to 1,000. Right Y-axis is labeled “Unemployment Rate” and ranges from 0% to 10%. X-axis ranges from Jan-21 to Sep-23 in monthly increments. Job Adds are plotted in light purple columns; Job Adds – Historical Average is plotted in purple dotted line at 120,000. Unemployment Rate is plotted in dark blue line. Most recent data for September 2023 is 336,000 jobs added and 3.8% unemployment. Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

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Temperatures Drop but Hiring Heats Up

A few weeks ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payrolls rose by 336,000 during the month…

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