Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Director of Research, Managing Partner
Last week, we hosted our “Halftime” Market Insights Webinar. As the host, my job was to introduce the analyst for each section and then summarize his or her comments before moving to the next speaker. After the fourth section, I found myself using the term “mixed bag” for the third time; it was at that moment that I knew I had my title for this letter!
Of course, “mixed bag” is an overused and unoriginal cliché to describe a perspective that features both positive and negative elements. If we focus solely on the first half of the year, it is hard to find much good news at all between negative economic growth, historically high inflation, and hefty losses in both the equity and bond markets. Even the good news is rooted in how bad things are…after all, how much longer can inflation stay above 9%? Could the equity market REALLY drop another 20% the second half of the year? Alas, our “mixed bag” descriptor admittedly relies on the assumption that conditions should improve at least somewhat for the remainder of the year, though likely not enough to reverse the damage inflicted during the first half. On an absolute and relative basis, growth and return figures should be better, but it is naïve to think that all of the bad news is behind us.
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