Halftime Market Outlook: A Mixed Bag

July 28, 2022 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Director of Research, Managing Partner

Last week, we hosted our “Halftime” Market Insights Webinar. As the host, my job was to introduce the analyst for each section and then summarize his or her comments before moving to the next speaker. After the fourth section, I found myself using the term “mixed bag” for the third time; it was at that moment that I knew I had my title for this letter!

Of course, “mixed bag” is an overused and unoriginal cliché to describe a perspective that features both positive and negative elements. If we focus solely on the first half of the year, it is hard to find much good news at all between negative economic growth, historically high inflation, and hefty losses in both the equity and bond markets. Even the good news is rooted in how bad things are…after all, how much longer can inflation stay above 9%? Could the equity market REALLY drop another 20% the second half of the year? Alas, our “mixed bag” descriptor admittedly relies on the assumption that conditions should improve at least somewhat for the remainder of the year, though likely not enough to reverse the damage inflicted during the first half. On an absolute and relative basis, growth and return figures should be better, but it is naïve to think that all of the bad news is behind us.

In this edition:

  • Inflation expectations
  • Consumer and business sentiment
  • The S&P 500’s worst six-month start to a year since 1970
  • Recession probability
  • The Agg’s worst start to a year ever
  • Bonds go back to being bonds

Read > Halftime Market Outlook: A Mixed Bag

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA
Director of Research, Managing Partner

Get to Know Greg

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