Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Partner, Director of Research
Given the fourth quarter U.S. stock market performance to date, we have been asked if certain quarters have historically offered more positive performance. Based on S&P 500 data from 1926 through 3Q2011, the answer seems to be yes, as there does appear to be some persistency across the four quarters. As the graph demonstrates, the fourth quarter has offered the highest frequency of positive returns and highest average return (3.55%). For the sake of comparison, the S&P 500 is up about 8.6% through October 25th, so while we would expect some reversion to the mean as the year winds down, there is reason for optimism about this quarter’s stock market returns.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
11.09.2026
The U.S. distressed debt market is showing increasingly pronounced signs of stress. As of this writing, option-adjusted spreads on CCC-rated…
11.02.2026
Emerging markets faced a challenging October, with the space declining by around 8.3% amid renewed concerns over the sustainability of…
10.26.2026
Private equity activity is increasingly shifting toward smaller transactions, with total deal value for transactions of $100 million or less…
10.08.2026
This video is a recording of a live webinar held October 22 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the third quarter…
10.22.2026
Anyone who has run a marathon knows the last six miles are brutal — no matter how well the first…
10.19.2026
Since 1980, the S&P 500 Index has generally performed well in the weeks surrounding U.S. midterm elections. Specifically, the index…
Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.
We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.
If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.
Contact Us >