Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Director of Research, Managing Partner
Given the fourth quarter U.S. stock market performance to date, we have been asked if certain quarters have historically offered more positive performance. Based on S&P 500 data from 1926 through 3Q2011, the answer seems to be yes, as there does appear to be some persistency across the four quarters. As the graph demonstrates, the fourth quarter has offered the highest frequency of positive returns and highest average return (3.55%). For the sake of comparison, the S&P 500 is up about 8.6% through October 25th, so while we would expect some reversion to the mean as the year winds down, there is reason for optimism about this quarter’s stock market returns.
09.28.2023
During its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to keep its policy rate unchanged — within a…
09.27.2023
The federal government will shut down if Congress is unable to pass funding legislation by October 1, and a bill…
09.22.2023
Watch the flash talks from Marquette’s 2023 Investment Symposium livestream on September 15 in the player below — use the upper-right…
09.21.2023
After a red hot 2021, the initial public offering (IPO) market has materially slowed over the last two years amid…
09.12.2023
As investors and economists meticulously analyze data to predict future actions of the Federal Reserve, the domestic economy has maintained…
09.06.2023
The U.S. Department of Commerce recently celebrated the one-year anniversary of the CHIPS and Science Act, which was signed into…
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