David Hernandez, CFA
Director of Traditional Manager Search
On August 2, Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, from 13.75% to 13.25%. This marks the country’s first rate cut in over three years and is in stark contrast to moves made by Brazilian policymakers in recent time. To that point, between February 2021 and July 2022, Brazil increased its key rate from 2.00% to 13.75%, representing the most aggressive monetary tightening by any central bank during this period. The August cut was made possible by a moderate domestic inflation rate of 3.2%, which sits well below the country’s post-pandemic peak of 12.1% exhibited in April of last year. Brazilian authorities have indicated that additional cuts are likely in the near future, thanks in large part to an improving consumer price outlook and longer-term inflation expectations that continue to fall. These dynamics place the country ahead of much of the globe when it comes to the cycle of interest rates, as many nations, particularly those in the developed world, continue to fight elevated inflation via restrictive monetary policy. Alternatively, other Latin American countries like Chile, Mexico, and Peru have either lowered rates in recent time or are expected to embark on easing campaigns within the coming months.
As it relates to performance, Brazilian equities have been a bright spot within the emerging markets space in 2023 and have significantly outpaced the MSCI EM index on a year-to-date basis through the end of July (22.6% vs. 11.4%). Expectations of a shift in monetary policy which has now come to fruition, coupled with better-than-expected fiscal and political outlooks, have boosted sentiment and helped fuel these strong returns. Should monetary conditions continue to ease, Brazil and its Latin American peers may continue to provide an attractive opportunity set for investors going forward.
Print PDFThe opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
06.09.2025
In a report published last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development sharply lowered its global economic growth outlook,…
06.02.2025
Capital expenditure is a crucial yet sometimes underappreciated component in real estate underwriting, as it directly eats into the cash…
05.27.2025
For many years, Japan experimented with ultra-loose monetary policy given long-term economic stagnation and persistent deflationary pressures that plagued the…
05.19.2025
The most recent headlines related to tariffs have been positive, with the U.S. and China reaching a 90-day pause on…
05.12.2025
As a result of policy uncertainty, shifting sentiment, and a potential U.S. economic slowdown, the dollar has moved lower in…
05.07.2025
The aging population in the United States has garnered increasing attention over the past two decades, coinciding with the retirement…
Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.
We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.
If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.
Contact Us >