Category: Quarterly Letter

Will Higher Rates Cramp the Markets?

Anyone who has run a marathon knows the last six miles are brutal — no matter how well the first 20 miles went, it’s really about how each runner can handle the cramps and pain of the remaining course. The outcome tends to be rather binary — it’s either the worst running experience of someone’s life (mine) or when the strongest push through and finish strong (one of our research colleagues in this year’s Chicago marathon).

This year’s market feels similar. Through September 30, most stock indices are headed for their fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, but the massive run-up of rates in the third quarter reminds us how quickly markets can change. Nothing will be final until we cross the finish line on December 31.

Under the Radar for the Second Half

The usual midyear version of these letters has touched on year-to-date performance as well as the most influential macroeconomic and market-specific variables to monitor over the last six months of the year. This time, however, I enlisted the help of some colleagues — Frank Valle, Evan Frazier, Fred Huang, and Weston Whalen — to identify more subtle yet materially influential factors to watch across the economy and capital markets. Make no mistake: the headline topics of Fed policy, interest rates, geopolitics, earnings, and overall diversification remain paramount to long-term investment success, but the following metrics will likely determine if the positive performance of 2026 continues for the second half of the year.

We’ve Seen This Before

Diversify. Rebalance. Stay invested. Every one of these letters has concluded with that same advice in some shape or form. It’s not particularly shiny and new, but the best documented path to a successful long-term investment program. The last eight weeks are another data point in support of these practices.

In this edition:

  • Impact of U.S.–Iran conflict on oil prices, interest rates, and equity markets
  • Volatility and drawdowns in the market cycle
  • Equity market rotation
  • Magnificent 7 detraction and increased market breadth
  • Slowdown in non-U.S. equities

Seventy-Five Horses and Two Pieces of Plastic

Anyone who has gone snowmobiling knows it can be simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. Throttling across snow and through a forest powered by a 75-horsepower engine with two plastic skis to steer makes it hard to feel like one has complete control; 30 mph in the open air feels more like 100!

Nonetheless, operating a snowmobile is pretty straightforward: The throttle is a right-thumb button, the brake is a left-hand squeeze lever. Beyond those two controls, it’s up to the driver to effectively navigate the trail, with the critical concession that the terrain is out of anyone’s complete control. Which brings me to our 2026 market outlook.

The “throttles” for portfolios are the usual constituents: equities, below investment grade credit, and private markets. The “brakes” are investment grade fixed income, particularly Treasuries which can slow a portfolio’s losses if the market tumbles. The terrain is naturally the actual path that each of these asset classes will follow in 2026. Since 2022 the equity market ride has been mostly exhilarating, save for some of the terrifying moments like the market dip after Liberation Day. But that’s in the rearview mirror, and the focus is what is around the bend. Will the thrill continue, or should we ease up on the throttle?

The Calm Before the Storm?

I spent the past weekend at my alma mater to watch them play their biggest rival. Football weekends there are filled with celebrations, traditions, and of course, tailgating. Saturday was a quintessential Midwestern day to be outside: sunny, low 70s, light breeze — no better conditions for food and drinks in the parking lot. About three hours before kickoff, however, massive thunderstorms rolled in which sent fans scurrying for cover and threatened to delay the game. For fans who hadn’t checked the forecast, they were ill-prepared to stay dry and enjoy the game as it rained for the duration of the match. Nonetheless, the stadium stayed full for the entire game, a testament to the home team’s performance as well as fan loyalty. That said, I saw plenty of cold and wet attendees in the concourse after the game — those who weren’t equipped for the conditions undoubtedly wished they had been better prepared for what the environment brought Saturday.

On my drive home Sunday, I couldn’t help but worry if as investors we find ourselves right where I was Saturday afternoon, wondering if the conditions were too good to be true for a mid-October day in the Midwest.

Policy Uncertainty Blurs the Outlook

As we enter the second half of the year, Liberation Day-induced market volatility seems like a distant memory with the S&P hitting another all-time high on July 10th and non-U.S. stocks significantly outpacing their U.S. counterparts through June 30th. Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law by President Trump on July 4th with varying expectations on its impact to growth but a consensus view that it will push the deficit higher.

In this edition:

  • Tariff and policy uncertainty
  • Risk factors and market indicators
  • Equity market drivers
  • Currency and regional trends
  • What to watch in the second half

Bracing for Stagflation

As markets swirl and stagflation fears mount, what should investors do?
Our newsletter last week outlined the broad context of President Trump’s new tariff policy as well as the most notable market impacts. Granted, the news seems to change daily, as does the market’s reaction; trying to pen a targeted newsletter is an almost worthless endeavor because by the time the ink has dried, markets have shifted due to another policy pivot. In the short term, the omnipresent cloud of uncertainty will continue to drive market volatility and investor sentiment. The best recipe for investors to weather this storm is patience and discipline, both of which can be difficult to come by in the current environment.

As we step back and take a longer-term view of the future, however, the threat of stagflation is becoming more realistic. Coined as a combination of the words “stagnation” and “inflation,” it is an economic backdrop characterized by high inflation, slow economic growth, and in some cases, high unemployment.

In this edition, we examine which asset classes are most exposed to stagflation and which can offer shelter.

New Year, New President…Same Outlook?

From an investor’s perspective, the current environment feels lot like it did twelve months ago: U.S. equity markets returned over 20% the prior year, fixed income is (still) offering attractive yields, and overall portfolio performance was positive for most programs. Nevertheless, nothing lasts forever and sentiment can shift on a dime. It is also likely that some of President Trump’s policies will have an impact on markets, with the specific impact varying by the policy and asset class.

In this edition:

  • U.S. Economy and Policy Expectations
  • Fixed Income: “If you liked it last year, you’ll like it this year”
  • U.S. Equity: Concentration risk still looms
  • Non-U.S. Equities: Positive earnings outlook, policy uncertainty
  • Real Assets: Real estate bottoms, infrastructure demand robust
  • Private Markets: Private equity on the rebound, private credit still compelling

The Market Doesn’t Care

With the election less than two weeks away, polls indicate a very tight race not only for president but for control of the House and Senate as well. Given that margins in some of the swing states are likely to be razor thin, final election results will not be determined until several days after November 5th. There is no debate that the candidates and their expected policies are vastly different, but as investors, should we care who wins? Does the market care?

In this edition, we examine a variety of historical data cuts to determine what market impacts might be expected based on the outcomes of this year’s elections.

Keep Your Eye on the Ball

When it comes to baseball, successful hitters have little trouble hitting the ball when they know what pitch is coming. But when pitchers can vary the speed as well as the spin and curve of the ball, hitting becomes exponentially more difficult. An effective curveball can make even the most accomplished hitter look feeble.

As we look at the second half of 2024, we are reminding our clients to “keep their eye on the ball.” Indeed, the first half of the year has been pretty “hittable” as far as returns are concerned, with the majority of asset classes positive through June 30. However, curveballs such as Fed policy, equity index concentration, exchange rates, and a capricious election could quickly flip the script and send investors back to the dugout shaking their heads.

With that said, here is our scouting report for the second half of the year, organized by asset class. We share not only “down the middle” themes but also the curveballs that could flummox performance. A well-prepared investor is no different than a well-prepared baseball player: Insight and realistic expectations provide the foundation for a successful season!