Emerging markets (EM) equities have gone through cycles of performance throughout time, creating varied investor sentiment towards the asset class. Recently, discussions around excluding China from investment portfolios have become more common, spurring the growth of active EM ex-China strategies. This newsletter explores the current landscape of EM investing, examines the drivers of the EM ex-China trend, and analyzes the performance impact of removing China from an EM allocation.
Category: Newsletter
What Has Private Equity Done to Small-Cap Stocks?
Private markets have grown exponentially over the last two decades, driven by attractive long-term returns, diversification benefits, and early-stage value creation. As companies stay private longer, much of their initial growth can be realized outside of public markets, which could challenge the small-cap premium and contribute to a shift in the composition of public markets. The following newsletter examines this dynamic and potential impact on small-cap stocks.
As Real Estate Finds Its Bottom, Alternative Sectors Become More Prominent
Since the onset of the pandemic, the commercial real estate market has experienced significant volatility — first benefiting from a post-pandemic surge, then grappling with a sharp downturn, and now showing signs of stabilization. With the third quarter of 2024 marking the first quarter of positive returns after eight consecutive quarters of losses, the fourth quarter performance added to the case that the asset class has found a floor. This newsletter outlines recent improvements not only across traditional sectors but also an expanding set of alternative property sectors. These alternatives, which include data centers, life sciences facilities, self-storage, and senior housing, reflect the changing composition of institutional real estate portfolios and the growing emphasis on diversification beyond the traditional core sectors. We also explore drivers of demand, specific opportunities in alternative real estate, and value-added real estate.
Trade Turmoil: Assessing the Impact of Tariffs on Markets, the Economy, and Investors
The global trade landscape has been significantly reshaped by a series of aggressive tariffs initiated by President Donald Trump. These measures have elicited strong reactions from market participants and U.S. trade partners alike, leading to elevated levels of market volatility, souring economic sentiment, and strained diplomatic relations. While the situation is ongoing with major developments seemingly arising each day, this paper aims to summarize the events that have led to this point, detail the impact of the trade war on global markets, and provide commentary on what investors might expect in the months ahead.
The Debt and Deficit Dilemma
The new year brings a new political administration with fresh approaches and drastically different perspectives on topics ranging from immigration to foreign policy. As the Biden era exits and another Trump era begins, federal spending and the deficit persists. Borrowing began with financing the Revolutionary War, and it is as American as baseball and apple pie. The national debt clock in Manhattan has a massive figure of over $36 trillion that is owed by the government to holders of Treasuries. Talks of the deficit and debt ceiling emerge every year and politicians put off the issue rather than finding ways to reduce borrowing by increasing taxes and/or reducing spending. Will there ever be any repercussions to running such a high deficit?
While you will never see an explicit bill from the government with your family’s share due, there is a limit to the amount the U.S. can borrow without any consequences. This paper will give the reader an anatomy of the deficit and debt, consequences of running such a high deficit, and summary of the high-level solutions that have been proposed.
Multi-Asset Credit: Taking Offense From Good to Great
Before the football season began, we authored a white paper that detailed offensive and defensive elements of a fixed income portfolio. For most investors, an aggregate (core) mandate provides defense while strategic allocations to high yield, senior secured loans, and emerging market debt (EMD) are the primary sources of offense. Relative to an aggregate benchmark, this structure has outperformed over market cycles. However, just as championship teams adjust and innovate throughout a season, so too should an investor’s portfolio.
Multi-Asset Credit (MAC) strategies are single portfolios that dynamically allocate across a broad range of global credit markets to provide higher levels of income and a diversity of fixed income exposures. These mandates can serve as a single-solution credit allocation or as a credit alpha overlay in the context of a broader credit portfolio. There is no perfect definition of MAC, but what they do offer is diversification, flexibility, and ease of access and operations. While these markets are not new, investors may be unfamiliar with the mechanics of a MAC strategy and its potential benefits.
This newsletter provides an overview of MAC, including the opportunity set, allocation structure and considerations, diversification benefits, and sample MAC manager performance.
Football is in Full Swing…and Private Equity Wants a Piece!
The 2024 National Football League regular season is at its midpoint, meaning employees in Marquette’s Chicago office are enduring another challenging season from the hometown Bears. While the growth of rookie Caleb Williams is not a viable topic for a Marquette newsletter, recent developments off the football field are worth exploring in greater detail. To that point, NFL owners recently approved a measure that will allow private equity firms to purchase small stakes in teams, marking a notable shift in the league’s ownership rules. This newsletter highlights the motivations, details, and implications of this recent change.
Keep Your Eye on the Labor Market
The Fed turned the page and began lowering interest rates with an outsized 50 bp cut at its September FOMC meeting. While Chairman Powell described the risks to achieving the Fed’s dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices as balanced, the market’s reaction to Powell’s press conference seemed to reflect anxieties that the labor market is now the chief concern and the Fed’s larger rate cut was perhaps a result of not only foresight but fear.
This newsletter puts recent labor market data into historical context as the Fed considers the pace of additional rate cuts in the coming months.
The State of the American Consumer
The U.S. economy has long been driven by consumers, with consumption constituting more than two-thirds of GDP growth: As the consumer went, so went the economy. More recently, robust consumer spending has fueled positive domestic GDP growth and helped buoy the prices of financial assets. That said, there are now signs that these trends may be shifting. For instance, delinquency rates across various consumer loan types have ticked up, as have debt burdens as a share of overall household income. Additionally, personal savings rates in the U.S. have now dropped below long-term averages. From a big picture perspective, what do these trends mean for the overall health and growth of the economy?
This newsletter examines long-term tailwinds and emerging headwinds for the American consumer and expectations for both consumers and overall GDP growth going forward.
What Does Elevated Index Concentration Mean for Active U.S. Equity Managers?
Indexing has risen in popularity over the last decade, particularly for U.S. equity investors. The fees are lower and indexing is perceived as less risky, with investors primarily seeking beta exposure to the market. However, these indices have evolved against an ever-changing economic and financial market backdrop. As a result, several unintended structural issues have emerged, particularly related to concentration risk. Understanding this evolution and how it could alter the overall exposures within a broader portfolio is critical, as these indices are not static. Notably, the composition of some indices alongside the increase in passive capital has created headwinds for active managers and helps to explain recent performance challenges.
This newsletter examines the progression of passive management, how and why U.S. equity index concentration has increased in recent years, and the effects and risks investors need be aware of across the market capitalization spectrum.