06.09.2025
The Global Economic Outlook
In a report published last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development sharply lowered its global economic growth outlook,…
This week’s Chart of the Week focuses on debt levels of the U.S. consumer and federal government. For consumer debt, all forms of debt other than mortgages are included in the analysis. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, U.S. consumers collectively held debt of $2.8T. Over the 32 year time frame since 1981 (when data was first collected), consumer debt has increased from $378B to $2.8T, a whopping increase of 635%. However, this still constitutes a relatively small percentage of U.S. debt, and has hovered between 5 and 10% over the years.
On the other hand, federal debt has not only been a much higher dollar amount (not surprising), but has also been a much more volatile component of overall U.S. debt. As of the fourth quarter of 2012, the Federal Government’s debt was $11.6T. In the 32 year time frame, Federal debt has increased from $821B to $11.6T, an even larger jump of 1313%. Federal debt has averaged 22% of total U.S. debt ranging from a low of 16% to a high of 29%.
The chart above depicts these four debt data points: households’ consumer credit dollar amount, Federal government’s dollar amount, consumer debt percentage of total U.S. debt, and Federal debt percentage of total U.S. debt. The takeaways are quite evident. The Federal debt has increased significantly since the 3rd quarter of 2008 (onset of the Global Financial Crisis), and appears to be maintaining this trajectory. On the other hand, while consumers’ household debt has increased in absolute terms, there have not been dramatic spikes in the debt level. Additionally, it has maintained its weight in the overall debt picture. Given the disparity in both dollar amount and share of overall debt, the level (and trend) of federal debt will continue to have a much more notable impact on the economy and financial markets than consumer debt.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
06.09.2025
In a report published last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development sharply lowered its global economic growth outlook,…
06.02.2025
Capital expenditure is a crucial yet sometimes underappreciated component in real estate underwriting, as it directly eats into the cash…
05.27.2025
For many years, Japan experimented with ultra-loose monetary policy given long-term economic stagnation and persistent deflationary pressures that plagued the…
05.21.2025
Private markets have grown exponentially over the last two decades, driven by attractive long-term returns, diversification benefits, and early-stage value…
05.19.2025
The most recent headlines related to tariffs have been positive, with the U.S. and China reaching a 90-day pause on…
05.12.2025
As a result of policy uncertainty, shifting sentiment, and a potential U.S. economic slowdown, the dollar has moved lower in…
Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.
We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.
If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.
Contact Us >