Direct Lending is Eating the World

April 06, 2023 | ,

This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination stacked column and line chart showing U.S. middle-market LBO loan issuance by debt type. Chart subtitle: Direct lending has doubled its overall market share over the past eight years. Chart source: Refinitiv. Chart visual description: Left y-axis is labeled Total Dollars ($B) and ranges from $0 to $90. Right y-axis is labeled Market Share and ranges from 0% to 90%. X-axis is annual categories, from 2014 through 2022. Each column total is divided into Syndicated Debt in green and Direct Lending in purple. A line representing Direct Lending % (for market share) is overlaid in light purple. Chart data description: Over period shown, historically syndicated debt and direct lending were close to equally split by total. Since 2020, however, syndicated debt has noticeably decreased and direct lending now makes up a majority of the total. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

In 2011, Marc Andreessen famously proclaimed that software is eating the world, meaning more and more industries and businesses are relying on software for their operations. This statement has since proved incredibly accurate, as evidenced by our daily dependence on software applications. What was said about software over a decade ago can be said about direct lending today, supported by the growing percentage of companies that rely on direct lenders or private credit managers to finance their operations. Direct lending is a form of financing where borrowers receive loans directly from lenders, without intermediaries such as banks or financial institutions. In this type of lending, borrowers can access funds more quickly and with more flexibility than via traditional lending channels. The terms and conditions of the loans are typically negotiated directly between the borrower and lender, allowing for greater customization and potentially more favorable rates for borrowers.

A number of different supply and demand tailwinds have contributed to the growth of direct lending, including a shift in banking practices post-GFC, including Dodd-Frank legislation and Basel III, the growth of private equity and its preference for direct lending financing, and the investment premiums inherent to the asset class. From here, Marquette expects direct lending to continue to grow, providing attractive investment opportunities for clients. The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the issues facing regional banks may continue to force small and mid-sized borrowers into the arms of private credit lenders. Private equity managers, who tend to prefer financing provided by non-bank institutions over those influenced by the mercurial nature of traditional capital markets as well as the certainty of execution offered by direct lenders, are armed with a record nearly $2 trillion in dry powder.¹ And lastly, we believe institutional investors will continue to allocate to direct lenders and private credit given the attractive risk-adjusted returns and portfolio diversification benefits the asset class provides, particularly in today’s challenging market environment.

Print PDF > Direct Lending is Eating the World

 

¹Thomas, Dylan. “Global Private Equity Dry Powder Approaches $2 Trillion.” S&P Global, December 21, 2022.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Table describing categories and criteria of MSCI indices. Chart subtitle: Despite its rapid ascendancy in recent decades, China is categorized as an emerging country by MSCI due to the market classification framework utilized by the index provider. Chart source: Source: MSCI as of June 30, 2023. ATVR: Annualized Traded Value Ratio, which is a liquidity measure used to assess liquidity of securities in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indices. The ATVR corresponds to the Annualized Traded Value of a security relative to its Free Float‐Adjusted Market Capitalization. Chart description: First column is Criteria, second is Frontier, third is Emerging, and fourth is Developed. First row section is Economic Development, detailed with “Sustainability of economic development.” Frontier: No requirement. Emerging: No requirement. Developed: Country GNI per capita 25% above the World Bank high income threshold for 3 consecutive years. Second section is Size and Liability Requirements, with four sub-rows. First: Number of companies meeting the following Standard Index criteria: Frontier: 2 Emerging: 3. Developed: 5. Second: Company size (full market cap, USD): Frontier: $1,033M. Emerging: $2,066M. Developed: $4,133M. Third: Security size (float market cap, USD): Frontier: $73M. Emerging: $1,033M. Developed: $2,066M. Fourth: Security liquidity: Frontier: 2.5% ATVR. Emerging: 15% ATVR. Developed: 20% ATVR. Third section is Market Accessibility, with five sub-rows. First: Openness to foreign ownership: Frontier: At least some. Emerging: Significant. Developed: Very high. Second: Ease of capital inflows / outflows: Frontier: At least partial. Emerging: Significant. Developed: Very high. Third: Efficiency of operational framework: Frontier: Modest. Emerging: Good and tested. Developed: Very high. Fourth: Availability of investment instruments: Frontier: High. Emerging: High. Developed: Unrestricted. Fifth: Stability of the institutional framework: Frontier: Modest. Emerging: Modest. Developed: Very high. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

12.04.2023

Is China Guilty of Category Fraud?

With movie awards season around the corner, some entertainment pundits may use the term “category fraud” to describe races in…

This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination column and line chart comparing recent holiday spending by U.S. consumers. Chart subtitle: Spending is on track to reach record levels this holiday season, despite mounting economic pressures faced by American consumers. Chart source: Adobe Analytics and CNN Business as of October 31, 2023. Chart description: Left Y-axis is labeled “Spending” and ranges from $0B to $250B. Right Y-axis is labeled “YoY Growth” and ranges from 0% to 50%. X-axis labels each column: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 (Projected). Holiday Spending by U.S. Consumers is plotted in dark teal columns. Holiday Spending Growth is plotted with light purple line and markers. 2019 saw $143B in spending and 13.1% YoY growth; 2020 $188B, 32.1%; 2021 $205B, 8.7%; 2022 $212B, 3.5%, and 2023 is projected at $222B and 4.8%. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.30.2023

‘Tis the Season to Spend!

The holiday spending frenzy is well underway as some of the biggest shopping days of the year, including Black Friday…

11.16.2023

The Taming of the VIX

October proved tumultuous for investors as all major U.S. equity indices were negative and the CBOE VIX Index, which serves…

This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Combination stacked column and line chart comparing unrealized gains/losses with effective federal funds rate. Chart subtitle: Unrealized losses across depository institutions have increased in recent quarters thanks to higher interest rates. Chart source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as of June 30, 2023. Chart description: Left Y-axis is labeled “Unrealized Gains/Losses” and ranges from -$800B to +$800B, corresponding to stacked columns. Right Y-axis is labeled “Rate” and ranges from -6% to +6%, corresponding to line. X-axis ranges from 1Q08 to 2Q23; labels are at 3-quarter increments to fit so last label is for 1Q23. Available-For-Sale Securities are plotted in dark green base of stacked columns; Held-To-Maturity Securities are plotted in lighter green as second half of column. Effect Federal Funds Rate line is plotted in light blue. Unrealized losses are at significant levels for chart losses; since the fed funds rate has increased since 1Q22, losses have totaled over $300B. Most recent datapoints, as of 2Q23 are as follows: Available-For-Sale Securities at -$248.9B, Held-To-Maturity Securities at -$309.6B, and Effective Federal Funds Rate at 5.3%. Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.08.2023

Realizing the Impact of Unrealized Losses

Earlier this year, the regional banking crisis and eventual collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, and…

This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Three-line chart showing cumulative return for various U.S. equity indices. Chart subtitle: Domestic stock indices enter correction territory after recent slide. Chart source: Bloomberg as of October 31, 2023. Chart description: Y-axis is labeled “Cumulative Return” and ranges from -15% to +10%. X-axis is labeled in monthly increments, from Jun-23 to Oct-23. Data ranges 6/30/23 through 10/31/23. S&P 500 Index is plotted in orange line, Nasdaq-100 Index in light tan line, and Russell 2000 Index in dark purple line. Most recent data points, respectively, -5.31%, -4.84%, -11.61%. Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

11.01.2023

The Chart for Red October

U.S. equities declined for the third consecutive month in October amid an environment of higher yields and underwhelming earnings reports…

10.13.2023

3Q 2023 Market Insights Video

This video is a recording of a live webinar held on October 26 by Marquette’s research team, featuring in-depth analysis…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >