Dispersion of Commodity Returns

July 20, 2011 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research

For all the press coverage of rising gold and oil prices, commodity prices during the first half of 2011 showed a tremendous degree of dispersion across different sectors. Silver saw the greatest increase in value as it rose by more than 12%, but wheat fell by more than 26%, thus creating a spread between best and worst of almost 40%. Despite hitting a price of $1,600 / ounce earlier this week, gold rose by less than 6% through the first 6 months of 2011; in fact, only 6 of the 14 commodities on the chart actually increased in price. The main take away from this chart? Commodity investors must have a keen understanding of their underlying exposures, as the large dispersions of individual commodity returns can lead to vastly different results across products and strategies.