Fighting Fire with Oil

October 13, 2022 | Rodrigo De La Peña Alanis, Associate Research Analyst

Lower oil prices, primarily via lower gasoline prices, were a key contributor to headline CPI moving off peak in July and August. Since late September, however, oil and gasoline prices have started to rise again. In early October, OPEC+ — comprised of the 13 OPEC members and 10 additional major oil-exporting countries, including Russia — agreed to steep oil production cuts, decreasing supply in an already stressed market. The total production cut is estimated to be around 2 million barrels per day (bpd), approximately 2% of global supply and the biggest production cut since the start of the COVID pandemic.

The move is expected to prop oil prices back up — as similar production cuts have done historically — after the commodity had fallen considerably over the last three months amid fears of a global recession, the stronger dollar, and higher interest rates. Higher energy prices would weigh on European countries, which are more heavily reliant on Russian oil and already facing recession, as well as the U.S. consumer, with oil accounting for roughly half of the retail price of gasoline. Earlier this year Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell quantified the impact of higher oil prices, noting every $10 per barrel increase in the price of crude raises inflation by 0.2% and sets back economic growth by 0.1%. The decision also adds to already heightened geopolitical tensions, with President Biden pursuing consequences for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, following the announcement. This evolving situation is one more unknown variable to monitor as we look for macroeconomic clarity.

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