Italian Elections and a Possible EU Exit

March 01, 2018 | David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search

With Italy’s general election set for March 4th, this week’s chart examines the probability of a Euro break-up. This time last year European political risks were at the forefront of investors’ minds. The Netherlands, France, and Germany all held elections in 2017, with investors particularly concerned about France, where the anti-EU Marine Le Pen was polling well headed into elections. Ultimately, each country avoided anti-euro leadership and markets welcomed the results.

Now Italy will hold elections and there are several parties and political factions jockeying for leadership. Based on polling, experts expect no clear winner thus leading to negotiations to form a coalition government. Despite this uncertainty, the Sentix Euro Break-up Index has fallen to an all time low. Over the last two years the European economy has improved dramatically with a falling unemployment rate and rising consumer and business confidence readings. With a rosier outlook on the horizon, the idea of leaving the Euro has become less appealing to citizens. In fact, support for the EU has reached a 10-year high according to the most recent European Commission study. All of this means that an Italy EU exit event, or as we like to call it, Quitaly, is unlikely to occur.

Print PDF

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

David Hernandez, CFA
Director of Traditional Manager Search

Get to Know David

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

02.11.2025

Egg Prices Ruffle Consumer Feathers

While investors scrutinize rhetoric from the Trump administration for its potential to ignite another bout of inflation for U.S. consumers,…

02.04.2025

Assessing the Trade War “Battlefield”

The tariff plans announced by President Trump in recent days represent a significant escalation in trade policy and a shift…

01.28.2025

Alternatives to Drive Growth in the Next Real Estate Cycle

As the real estate market evolves, alternative sectors are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years. Senior housing,…

01.23.2025

New Year, New President…Same Outlook?

From an investor’s perspective, the current environment feels lot like it did twelve months ago: U.S. equity markets returned over…

01.22.2025

The Economic Toll of the California Wildfires

Earlier this month, wildfires broke out across Los Angeles County, California, destroying more than 12,000 homes, businesses, schools, and other…

01.13.2025

A Cup of Joe Could Break the Bank

Over the last few years, a cup of coffee has become much more expensive as the costs of the two…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >