The Labor Market Is Healing, but More Slowly Than Expected

June 10, 2021

GDP growth turning positive in the first quarter, May unemployment down to 5.8% from 14.8% in April 2020, and the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high in May are all signs of economic recovery. More than 22 million jobs gained over the past 10 years were wiped out by COVID, and as of May, 13 months after the April 2020 bottom, 66% of those jobs have been recovered. While the same degree of recovery took 22 months following the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, the recent increases in payroll have actually fallen short of expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 559,000 in May, falling below expectations for 675,000. This follows an even larger miss in April, when an increase of 278,000 jobs fell well below expectations for 1 million.¹ At the same time, the number of job openings has mounted to 9.3 million,² a record high and 2.3 million more than before the pandemic. Labor supply is not keeping pace with demand. According to the May Consumer Confidence Survey, 46.8% of consumers ­­— up from 36.3% — say that jobs are “plentiful,” and only 12.2% — down from 14.7% — say that jobs are “hard to get.” The labor participation rate is down to 61.6%, the lowest level since 1976, excluding the recent period since the coronavirus outbreak.

From here, vaccination rates, wage growth, and the expected September expiration of additional unemployment benefits will dictate employment trends. Jobs progress will in turn influence how the Federal Reserve approaches raising interest rates and tightening monetary policy. Meaningful progress has been made, and these factors, among others, will continue to shape the economic recovery.

Print PDF > The Labor Market Is Healing, but More Slowly Than Expected

¹ Bloomberg
² As of April, latest available

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

Two-line chart showing unemployment rate for All U.S. Workers and Recent College Graduates (Ages 22–27), 12/31/05 to 12/31/25. Up to 2020 period, Recent College Graduates generally had a lower unemployment rate than all U.S. workers category, but since then, the opposite has been true. Lines begin at ~3% to ~5% range in 2005, rose during Global Financial Crisis of '07-'09 to near 10% for All, ~7% for Grads, then both lines declined fairly steadily up to COVID. Peak for both series was 6/30/20, with All at 12.8% and Grads at 13.4%. Most recent data for 12/31/25 is ~4% for All and ~5.5% for Grads. For full dataset, please email marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

04.20.2026

The Sorrows of Young Workers

Entry-level jobs have traditionally served as the primary bridge between education and stable employment, offering young workers a foothold from…

Combination column and line chart showing Net Duties Received (columns, left-hand axis, ranging $0 to $35 billion) and Effective Tariff Rate (line, right-hand axis, ranging 0 to 12%) monthly, from April 2024 through February 2025. Up to March 2025, both data series held relatively steady, averaging around $7B for net duties received, and 2% for effective tariff rate, but both series have quadrupled since then. Most recent (Feb-26) is $26B and 8%. Please contact us for the full data set at marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

04.13.2026

Liberation Day: One Year Later

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on imports into the United States. Dubbed…

04.07.2026

Fiduciary Duties in Selecting Designated Investment Alternatives

On March 30, 2026, the Department of Labor (DOL) issued its proposed regulation: Fiduciary Duties in Selecting Designated Investment Alternatives….

Line chart showing commercial & industrial loans as percent of total bank credit since 1980. Peak of line is September 1982 at 38%; since then there has been a steady decrease, with several peaks following global crises, with February 2026 datapoint at 21%. Basel I labeled at 1988, Basel II labeled at 2004, Basel III labeled at 2010. For full dataset, please contact marquettemarketing@marquetteassociates.com.

04.06.2026

Regulation Abdication?

The Basel capital framework was created to ensure that banks maintain sufficient capital to absorb losses and reduce the risk…

04.02.2026

1Q 2026 Market Insights Webinar

This video is a recording of a live webinar held April 16 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first quarter…

Stacked column chart comparing contribution to total value creation broken out by revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion for private equity managers, by exit year, 2017 to 2024. 2017 column 45% revenue growth, 26% margin expansion, 29% multiple expansion. 2018 column 56% revenue growth, 4% margin expansion, 40% multiple expansion. 2019 column 43% revenue growth, 10% margin expansion, 47% multiple expansion. 2020 column 42% revenue growth, 19% margin expansion, 39% multiple expansion. 2021 column 46% revenue growth, 13% margin expansion, 42% multiple expansion. 2022 column 53% revenue growth, 20% margin expansion, 27% multiple expansion. 2023 column 64% revenue growth, 19% margin expansion, 17% multiple expansion. 2024 column 71% revenue growth, 12% margin expansion, 17% multiple expansion.

03.30.2026

Pulling the Right Value Creation Levers

In the period between 2009 and 2022, private equity managers thrived amid an environment of low interest rates and rising…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >