Assessing the Likelihood of a Recession and Understanding the Impact on Portfolios

March 26, 2024 | Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner, Catherine Hillier, Research Analyst, David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search, Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, James Torgerson, Research Analyst, Jessica Noviskis, CFA, Associate Director of Alternatives

Is a recession coming to the U.S.? It’s a question that has been asked since 2022, as the Fed’s rapid rate hikes sparked concern that higher interest rates would lead to demand destruction and ultimately economic contraction. Nonetheless, here we are in the first quarter of 2024 and although the growth rate of gross domestic product has fallen, it is still positive. Unemployment remains at historic lows and inflation is falling. However, with the Fed unlikely to cut rates during the first half of the year and the full effect of the higher rate environment not yet settled, the recession threat still looms over the economy and markets. Given this background, the following paper presents three reasons for each side as to whether the U.S. may enter or avoid a recession in 2024, as well as recessionary implications across asset classes.

Read > Assessing the Likelihood of a Recession and Understanding the Impact on Portfolios

Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA
Senior Research Analyst

Get to Know Frank

Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA
Director of Research, Managing Partner

Get to Know Greg

Catherine Hillier
Research Analyst

Get to Know Catherine

David Hernandez, CFA
Director of Traditional Manager Search

Get to Know David

Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA
Senior Research Analyst

Get to Know Evan

James Torgerson
Research Analyst

Get to Know James

Jessica Noviskis, CFA
Associate Director of Alternatives

Get to Know Jessica

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

04.16.2024

The Banks’ Real Estate Problem

First quarter earnings season is getting started, with the largest banks reporting first. In the wake of last year’s regional…

04.11.2024

First to Cut: The Fed or the ECB?

Based on implied probabilities derived from options markets, investors are currently forecasting an 82% chance that the European Central Bank…

04.10.2024

1Q 2024 Market Insights Webinar

— LIVE WEBINAR APRIL 25 — Please join Marquette’s research team for our 1Q 2024…

04.01.2024

Sweet and High Up

Chocolate eggs and bunnies may have appeared more expensive to shoppers this Easter weekend, as the price of cocoa futures…

03.27.2024

The Crystal Ball Has Clouded

Last month, Marquette published a Chart of the Week that highlighted the aberrational length of the current…

03.21.2024

The Dynamic Duo

In 2023, investors were stunned by the robust performance of seven prominent mega-cap stocks deemed the “Magnificent Seven.” Largely beneficiaries…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >