Assessing the Likelihood of a Recession and Understanding the Impact on Portfolios

March 26, 2024 | Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner, Catherine Hillier, Research Analyst, David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search, Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, James Torgerson, Research Analyst, Jessica Noviskis, CFA, Associate Director of Alternatives

Is a recession coming to the U.S.? It’s a question that has been asked since 2022, as the Fed’s rapid rate hikes sparked concern that higher interest rates would lead to demand destruction and ultimately economic contraction. Nonetheless, here we are in the first quarter of 2024 and although the growth rate of gross domestic product has fallen, it is still positive. Unemployment remains at historic lows and inflation is falling. However, with the Fed unlikely to cut rates during the first half of the year and the full effect of the higher rate environment not yet settled, the recession threat still looms over the economy and markets. Given this background, the following paper presents three reasons for each side as to whether the U.S. may enter or avoid a recession in 2024, as well as recessionary implications across asset classes.

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