Not Summer Yet

April 25, 2023 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner

It seems only fitting that I write this as snow is falling the day after it was a beautiful 80° and sunny; a harsh reminder that our Midwest summer is still a ways off. All in all, it was a mild winter by Chicago standards with only a few days of brutal cold and even fewer with measurable snow. Nonetheless, the freedom to comfortably wear shorts and soak up the sun last weekend was hopefully a preview of another glorious summer to come. But we’re not there yet.

The same could be said for capital markets. For anyone who read our market preview, the common narrative was “wait for the second half of the year” — which naturally coincides with summer in the northern hemisphere — please forgive me for taking advantage of the low-hanging parallel. Running with the analogy laid out above, though, the parallels are easy. If an investor hibernated during the first quarter and awoke to what markets delivered for returns, the results would be pleasing. Almost every major index across stocks and bonds was positive, with growth stocks roaring back. However, the temptation to focus exclusively on returns without regard for the environment would not only be irresponsible but a genesis for unhealthy expectations.

In this edition:

• The murky economic outlook:
  • Regional banking crisis recap
  • Labor market update
  • Recession probability
• Fixed income confidence
• Equities’ surprising returns
• Hedge fund opportunities
• Real estate uncertainty

Read > Not Summer Yet

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.