As interest rates remain elevated, some market participants have questioned the extent to which the maturity wall in the below…
This week’s chart analyzes job growth after the last four recessions by examining employment levels 60 months after the start of each recession. The data focuses on private employment, not government employment. Ellipses on the chart represent the end point of each recession, whereas squares represent the beginning of job growth.
The 1982 recession lasted seventeen months. After its cessation, it took only nine months for employee growth to emerge. While the 1990 recession lasted nine months, it endured an additional 26 until job growth began. The length of the 2001 recession was again brief lasting only nine months, but it withstood 30 months until growth mode. The most recent recession began in December of 2007 and lasted nineteen months. At 27 months and counting, we are still waiting for job growth to commence.
Five years after the ’82, ’90, and the ’01 recessions, private sector job levels were well ahead of their pre-recessions levels. Unfortunately, it is difficult to paint a happy picture on the current status of employment: while there has been progress in recovering lost jobs, substantial headwinds remain, as 6.3 million more jobs are needed to return to pre-recession levels.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
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