Do Presidents Play a Role in Equity Performance?

September 10, 2020

With market volatility already heightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. presidential election this year poses another layer of uncertainty that investors may view as added risk to their portfolios. In particular, there is inevitable speculation about how the market will react upon which candidate or political party wins the election. This week’s chart illustrates equity performance over the last nine presidents since 1969.

The question most asked is how the stock market will perform under Republican or Democratic leadership in the White House. Based on the data above,¹ the equity markets have averaged 14% annualized total returns when the president has been a Democrat and 8% when a Republican has been president. However, we caution that equity markets are subject to many market forces and most importantly, the sample size from this data set is not large enough to support these trends in a statistically significant manner. The good news is that regardless of political party, the stock market has averaged 10% a year over the time period shown in the chart.

As we look towards the November election, it is critical to understand the platforms of each candidate and how they can broadly impact the economy and by extension, equity markets. Understanding each candidate’s position on a variety of economic and social issues will inform the market’s likely reaction to the election results and help formulate expectations for investors. In the coming weeks, we will release a paper that examines these very topics in greater depth to establish baseline expectations of each candidate’s policies, market impact, and historical market performance of political party leadership in Washington across the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives. If nothing else, we know the election will be contentious and scrutinized, with market participants closely watching the ultimate result.

Print PDF > Do Presidents Play a Role in Equity Performance?

¹ For measuring equity performance, a total return index was used to account for shares that pay dividends and represent more accurate performance by reinvesting dividends back into the index.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Related Content

02.13.2025

The Debt and Deficit Dilemma

The new year brings a new political administration with fresh approaches and drastically different perspectives on topics ranging from immigration…

02.11.2025

Egg Prices Ruffle Consumer Feathers

While investors scrutinize rhetoric from the Trump administration for its potential to ignite another bout of inflation for U.S. consumers,…

02.04.2025

Assessing the Trade War “Battlefield”

The tariff plans announced by President Trump in recent days represent a significant escalation in trade policy and a shift…

01.28.2025

Alternatives to Drive Growth in the Next Real Estate Cycle

As the real estate market evolves, alternative sectors are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years. Senior housing,…

01.23.2025

New Year, New President…Same Outlook?

From an investor’s perspective, the current environment feels lot like it did twelve months ago: U.S. equity markets returned over…

01.22.2025

The Economic Toll of the California Wildfires

Earlier this month, wildfires broke out across Los Angeles County, California, destroying more than 12,000 homes, businesses, schools, and other…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >