Raise the Roof

May 17, 2023

Investor questions continue to mount as the U.S. nears the Treasury’s estimated debt ceiling “X-date” of June 1. While there are some signs that progress is being made between President Biden and Republican leaders, the two sides still seem far apart on a deal to raise or suspend the country’s debt limit. Failure to do so would result in the U.S. defaulting on its debt for the first time and would have significant economic consequences. According to the Council of Economic Advisors, even a brief default could lead to the loss of half a million jobs, a 0.6% contraction in real GDP, and a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate. An extended default would be even more dire, with a forecasted loss of 8.3 million jobs, a 6.1% reduction in real GDP, and a 5% increase in the unemployment rate.¹

As shown in this week’s chart, raising or suspending the debt ceiling has become a fairly common occurrence over the last several years, though the process can be political, contentious, and last minute. This week, amid continued talks between staff, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, along with other congressional leaders, held a meeting both sides described as “productive.” Both parties are seeking a deal to prevent default, though agreeing on the details — future spending cuts, federal aid work requirements, and clawing back unspent COVID funds, among other Republican demands — remains a delicate process. Markets are closely following the debt-ceiling developments and, while the severity of consequences from a default will hopefully lead to a timely resolution, both equity and fixed income should brace for ongoing volatility from here.

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¹Council of Economic Analysis, The Potential Economic Impacts of Various Debt Ceiling Scenarios