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Recession Redefined

Combination column and line chart showing U.S. GDP Growth, year over year, and Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) contribution to GDP. Chart subtitle: In only the mildest recession over the last 50 years did PCE not turn negative. Chart visual description: Y-axis spans percentages from -15% to +15%. X-axis shows dates from 1Q1970 to 1Q2021, though data is through 2Q2022. Recessionary periods are shaded in light grey, with 8 marked in the time period shown. Green columns display Real GDP YoY. Teal line displays PCE Contribution to GDP. A note on the chart notes that data during 2020 exceeds the bounds of the chart area, as the PCE line went negative to -24.1% in 2Q20, and positive to +25.5% in 3Q20. Chart data description: As explained in the text, one common definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the GDP columns coincide with each recessionary period, going negative a two quarters before a recession, then going positive, then fully falling within the recession shading. The first two quarters of 2022 both had negative GDP YoY. The PCE line also corresponds to the text’s explanation. Though the recent quarters have seen a slight decrease, PCE is still positive as of now. Historically, however, it has turned negative preceding recessions, except for 1991’s. Chart Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis as of June 30, 2022.
Posted on August 3, 2022August 3, 2022 Full size 1911 × 1033

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Published inRecession Redefined

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