Additional Relief Stimulus to Bridge Gap as Vaccine Distribution is Underway

December 22, 2020 | Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income, Managing Partner

While the recent approval and rollout of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines would be expected to assist in the gradual economic recovery from the COVID pandemic, the Federal Reserve emphasized last week that approximately six months of both monetary and fiscal stimulus are needed to bridge the gap between now and adequate vaccine distribution to support herd immunity by 2H21. As such, Congress over the weekend finally reached an agreement on an approximate $900 billion fiscal stimulus package, and after passing through both houses Monday, President Trump is expected to sign it into law today.

The package includes aid for many Americans including $300 per week in federal unemployment benefit enhancements and $600 individual stimulus checks, as well as support for small businesses, healthcare, transit, schools, and vaccine rollout. In this paper, we will begin with an assessment of the stimulus packages to date, followed by highlights on key aid to individuals, businesses, and governments in this latest package. Next, we will discuss an interpretation and analysis of this relief deal in the context of key financial market and economic indicators. Finally, we will conclude with a look to next steps.

Read > Additional Relief Stimulus to Bridge Gap as Vaccine Distribution is Underway

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Ben Mohr, CFA
Director of Fixed Income, Managing Partner

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Line chart showing the personal savings rate and personal consumption amongst Americans. Chart subtitle: Personal savings rates have retreated from pandemic-induced highs, however several potential headwinds still face the American consumer this holiday season Chart description: Y-axis ranges from -15% to +30%. X-axis shows quarters from 3Q16 to 3Q21. Line for Personal Savings Rate is purple and line for Personal Consumption (Quarter-Over-Quarter Change) is dark green. Both lines were relatively steady up to 2Q20 as the coronavirus pandemic took hold of the economy. The Personal Savings Rate peaked in that quarter to 26.0% and the Consumption Rate Change decreased to the extremein 2Q20 then peaked the following quarter with a 10% increase. Both levels have returned to just slightly higher than normal levels in recent quarters. Chart source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as of September 30, 2021.

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