Is Manufacturing on the Rebound?

February 06, 2020 | Julianna Paterra, CFA, CAIA, Research Analyst

The ISM PMI index is a survey of manufacturers and measures the overall strength of the manufacturing sector. A measure over 50 indicates the sector is growing while over 43 suggests the economy overall is expanding. Over the last five months of 2019 this measure fell below 50, leading analysts and investors to wonder if we were in a manufacturing recession, driven by the U.S.-China trade dispute and slowing global growth. However, January’s reading came in at 50.9, beating expectations of 48.5 and recovering from an almost four year low. January’s surprise gain was met positively by stocks, bond yields, and dollar gains. The PMI had recently been held back by weak export markets and the trade war and it seems that news of the Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China supported manufacturing health; however, effects of the coronavirus nearly freezing parts of China’s economy and Boeing’s halted production straining producers will likely impact February’s number. So, while January’s reading was certainly a welcomed surprise, economists are now in “wait and see” mode to see how these risks play out in February.

Print PDF > Is Manufacturing on the Rebound?


The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Julianna Paterra, CFA, CAIA
Research Analyst

Get to Know Julianna

Related Content


Coronavirus and the U.S. Economy: Assessing the Impact

Over the last month, the world has been gripped by fears of the coronavirus and its eventual toll on the…


Much Ado About Corona?

By now, you have all read the headlines and watched various news commentators detail the perils of the latest pneumonia…


Another Way to Look at Spreads

Bond spreads¹ now appear tight based on the traditional method of calculating spreads² as positive momentum…


Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

Global markets have come under pressure as the number of coronavirus cases grows. Through January 27th, the S&P 500 is…


2020 Market Preview

2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns.  As we enter…


2020 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our annual Market Preview newsletters and includes a recap of 2019’s performance and…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >