The usual midyear version of these letters has touched on year-to-date performance as well as the most influential macroeconomic and market-specific variables to monitor over the last six months of the year. This time, however, I enlisted the help of some colleagues — Frank Valle, Evan Frazier, Fred Huang, and Weston Whalen — to identify more subtle yet materially influential factors to watch across the economy and capital markets. Make no mistake: the headline topics of Fed policy, interest rates, geopolitics, earnings, and overall diversification remain paramount to long-term investment success, but the following metrics will likely determine if the positive performance of 2026 continues for the second half of the year.
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Commodities: An Overview of the Asset Class
Commodities represent a unique asset class within global financial markets. Like equities and bonds, commodity prices are influenced by the macroeconomic environment, geopolitical events, and technological developments. However, because commodities are tangible assets, their prices are also directly affected by physical supply-and-demand dynamics, weather patterns, and other factors unique to underlying resource markets. Recent structural trends, including rising demand for metals within the technology and renewable energy sectors, have created secular tailwinds for certain commodities that potentially complement the asset class’s traditionally cyclical characteristics. Additionally, evolving energy market dynamics may provide further structural support. Years of underinvestment in conventional energy production coupled with recent geopolitical conflicts and damage to critical infrastructure in the Middle East have increased concerns about the long-term resilience of global energy supply chains, potentially supporting elevated energy prices relative to historical norms. Simultaneously, global inflationary pressures and conflicts across the world have renewed interest in commodity allocations as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical strife. This paper examines the viability of commodities in institutional portfolios by exploring the dynamics of commodity cycles and demand drivers, analyzing the historical performance of the asset class, and outlining risk management considerations. By reviewing both opportunities and challenges, the paper aims to provide a balanced and educational assessment for institutional investors seeking to understand the role of commodities in modern portfolios.
A Portfolio Needs Structure: An Overview of the Securitized Credit Asset Class
Fixed income is the largest global financial market and often one of the largest allocations within institutional investors’ portfolios. A typical fixed income allocation implements an investment grade anchor with a few “satellite” mandates — most commonly high yield bonds, leveraged loans, and emerging market debt — that carry more credit risk but provide higher levels of yield. Fixed income portfolios are often over-exposed to corporate borrowers through both anchor and satellite allocations. Additionally, these satellite allocations usually increase corporate credit risk while reducing equity diversification that fixed income is supposed to provide. Securitized credit provides higher yields and more compelling diversification benefits.
Securitized credit is a large asset class that has been largely ignored by institutional investors due to under-representation in fixed income indices, perceived complexities, and a stigma from its role in the Great Financial Crisis. While factors responsible for under-allocation to securitized credit have merits, these have caused investors to overlook the benefits of the asset class. Securitized credit provides a spread and yield premium relative to similarly rated corporate credit, diversified risk exposure to various credit and market cycles, and lower correlation to both traditional fixed income and equities. Overall, securitized credit’s attributes can help to further optimize portfolio structures.
Evan Frazier Speaking at AIF Institute 2026 Midwest Investors’ Symposium 9/17
On Thursday, September 17, Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA will be speaking at the AIF Institute Midwest Investors’ Symposium hosted by AIF Global in Chicago.
Evan will be joining a panel entitled “Pressure Points: Private Credit and the Test Ahead,” which will explore the opportunities, risks, and outlook for private credit amid evolving market dynamics and increasing economic uncertainty.
The Midwest Investors’ Symposium is an invitation-only event that brings together institutional investors, consultants, board members, and academics to discuss key themes and emerging trends across alternative investments. For more information, please visit the AIF website.
Healthcare System Operating Portfolios: Balancing Stability with Need for Growth
Healthcare systems have faced an onslaught of challenges in recent years. They had to navigate the operational and financial headwinds stemming from COVID-19, a severe labor shortage, and 2022’s double-digit drawdowns in both stocks and bonds. Since the end of 2022, global equity markets have returned more than 70% cumulatively, but a combination of portfolio draws and elevated cash expense growth has left median days cash on hand roughly flat. Going forward, balance sheet liquidity is likely to be restrained. While operating margins are improving, the appetite for capital spending remains high and the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have yet to emerge. At the same time, equities are expensive and credit spreads are tight, limiting the margin for error. Health systems need to carefully weigh the risks of a significant market decline with the need for long-term growth.
Seventy-Five Horses and Two Pieces of Plastic
Anyone who has gone snowmobiling knows it can be simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. Throttling across snow and through a forest powered by a 75-horsepower engine with two plastic skis to steer makes it hard to feel like one has complete control; 30 mph in the open air feels more like 100!
Nonetheless, operating a snowmobile is pretty straightforward: The throttle is a right-thumb button, the brake is a left-hand squeeze lever. Beyond those two controls, it’s up to the driver to effectively navigate the trail, with the critical concession that the terrain is out of anyone’s complete control. Which brings me to our 2026 market outlook.
The “throttles” for portfolios are the usual constituents: equities, below investment grade credit, and private markets. The “brakes” are investment grade fixed income, particularly Treasuries which can slow a portfolio’s losses if the market tumbles. The terrain is naturally the actual path that each of these asset classes will follow in 2026. Since 2022 the equity market ride has been mostly exhilarating, save for some of the terrifying moments like the market dip after Liberation Day. But that’s in the rearview mirror, and the focus is what is around the bend. Will the thrill continue, or should we ease up on the throttle?
Jessica Noviskis Featured on Bloomberg Markets 7/3/26
Portfolio Strategist Jessica Noviskis, CFA was featured on Bloomberg Television’s Markets coverage on July 3, 2026.
Jessica discussed market uncertainty surrounding the AI rally, how investors can approach diversification within portfolio construction — including across both asset classes or geography — what asset classes may diversify portfolios well outside the 60/40 structure, and expectations for how Fed actions may impact markets and the economy with Warsh at the helm.
Watch Jessica’s interview segment on Bloomberg’s website.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.
Where Should Investors Land on the Aggregate Continuum?
Contrary to widespread belief, fixed income aggregate strategies offer a continuum of active risk and return profiles. While aggregate strategies broadly aim to provide income, diversification, and liquidity, varying degrees of excess return exist. Investors must choose what suits their active risk and return goals.
Fixed income mandates are described by their beta and benchmarked to a similarly named index. For example, long credit is benchmarked to the Bloomberg Long Credit Index and high yield is benchmarked versus the Bank of America High Yield Master II Index. Once a beta is selected, then an alpha objective is chosen for the mandate. Some mandates in the universe have an alpha target of benchmark plus 50 basis points (bps), while others target an excess return of 100bps or more.
However, this is not true for aggregate strategies. The beta and index are the Bloomberg Aggregate Index. Rather than having different objectives, aggregate mandates have different “asset classes.” The aggregate continuum should not be thought of as different asset classes, but rather different active risk and return profiles.
This white paper outlines considerations for investors when choosing a fixed income aggregate strategy, including an overview of the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, how investment managers can generate active risk, excess return targets, and the important distinction between risk and active risk.
Kweku Obed Speaking at 2026 Apollo U.S. Public Pension Private Capital Roundtable 6/22
On Monday, June 22, Kweku Obed, CFA, CAIA will be speaking at the 2026 U.S. Public Pension Private Capital Roundtable hosted by Apollo Global Management at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Kweku will be joining a panel entitled, “Portfolio Construction: Rethinking Risk, Return & Resilience,” described as follows: The investment landscape has grown more complex for institutional investors, and particularly for public pension plans navigating long-duration liabilities in a period of sustained geopolitical volatility. Persistent inflation, elevated rates, policy uncertainty, and rapidly evolving capital markets are challenging long-held assumptions around asset allocation, diversification, and risk management. This session will explore how investors are rethinking portfolio construction in real time, including approaches to risk budgeting, rebalancing discipline, and building resilience across market regimes. Panelists will examine the expanding role of private capital as a tool for enhancing return potential, managing downside risk, and strengthening portfolio durability through periods of sustained uncertainty.
The Roundtable is a one-day event that will bring together senior investment professionals from leading public pension plans alongside top consultants, academic experts, and Apollo’s senior leadership. For more information about Apollo, visit their website.
Why Are Emerging Markets Investors Removing Their China Exposure?
Emerging markets (EM) equities have gone through cycles of performance throughout time, creating varied investor sentiment towards the asset class. Recently, discussions around excluding China from investment portfolios have become more common, spurring the growth of active EM ex-China strategies. This newsletter explores the current landscape of EM investing, examines the drivers of the EM ex-China trend, and analyzes the performance impact of removing China from an EM allocation.