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1Q 2025 Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held April 16 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first quarter of 2025 (and recent weeks) across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in the coming months.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Director of Research, Managing Partner
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Hayley McCollum, Senior Research Analyst
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA Senior Research Analyst

Sign up for research alerts to be invited to future webinars and notified when we publish new videos.

If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

 

Bracing for Stagflation

As markets swirl and stagflation fears mount, what should investors do?
Our newsletter last week outlined the broad context of President Trump’s new tariff policy as well as the most notable market impacts. Granted, the news seems to change daily, as does the market’s reaction; trying to pen a targeted newsletter is an almost worthless endeavor because by the time the ink has dried, markets have shifted due to another policy pivot. In the short term, the omnipresent cloud of uncertainty will continue to drive market volatility and investor sentiment. The best recipe for investors to weather this storm is patience and discipline, both of which can be difficult to come by in the current environment.

As we step back and take a longer-term view of the future, however, the threat of stagflation is becoming more realistic. Coined as a combination of the words “stagnation” and “inflation,” it is an economic backdrop characterized by high inflation, slow economic growth, and in some cases, high unemployment.

In this edition, we examine which asset classes are most exposed to stagflation and which can offer shelter.

Trade Turmoil: Assessing the Impact of Tariffs on Markets, the Economy, and Investors

The global trade landscape has been significantly reshaped by a series of aggressive tariffs initiated by President Donald Trump. These measures have elicited strong reactions from market participants and U.S. trade partners alike, leading to elevated levels of market volatility, souring economic sentiment, and strained diplomatic relations. While the situation is ongoing with major developments seemingly arising each day, this paper aims to summarize the events that have led to this point, detail the impact of the trade war on global markets, and provide commentary on what investors might expect in the months ahead.

Marquette Views on 2025 Traditional Investments Outlook Featured on Nonprofit News

Published January 9, Director of Research and Managing Partner Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA was interviewed for Nonprofit News’ Special Report 2025: Traditional Investments Outlook (subscription required).

Greg discussed the outlook for both U.S. equities — including expectations for inflation, economic growth, and the impact of the new administration — and fixed income — including Marquette’s customized approach to portfolio construction, particularly as the rate environment has changed in recent years — in the article.

For more coverage of expectations for the year ahead, Marquette’s 2025 Market Preview webinar will be hosted on January 16 with in-depth analysis by our research team and Greg’s Quarterly Letter from the Director of Research will be published the following week.

Marquette Views on Concentration Risk in 2025 Featured on FundFire

Published February 11, Director of Research and Managing Partner Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA was interviewed for FundFire’s “Consultants Point Investors to Active Managers amid Volatility” article (subscription required).

Greg discussed the risks of overconcentration in large-cap tech stocks like the Magnificent Seven and how increased market breadth creates opportunity for active managers in the article.

For more Marquette coverage of these topics, reference our Market Preview letter, “New Year, New President…Same Outlook?” and newsletter, “What Does Elevated Index Concentration Mean for Active U.S. Equity Managers?”

The Debt and Deficit Dilemma

The new year brings a new political administration with fresh approaches and drastically different perspectives on topics ranging from immigration to foreign policy. As the Biden era exits and another Trump era begins, federal spending and the deficit persists. Borrowing began with financing the Revolutionary War, and it is as American as baseball and apple pie. The national debt clock in Manhattan has a massive figure of over $36 trillion that is owed by the government to holders of Treasuries. Talks of the deficit and debt ceiling emerge every year and politicians put off the issue rather than finding ways to reduce borrowing by increasing taxes and/or reducing spending. Will there ever be any repercussions to running such a high deficit?

While you will never see an explicit bill from the government with your family’s share due, there is a limit to the amount the U.S. can borrow without any consequences. This paper will give the reader an anatomy of the deficit and debt, consequences of running such a high deficit, and summary of the high-level solutions that have been proposed.

Tim Burdick and Nat Kellogg Speaking at Community Foundation of Middle Tennessee Event 4/9

On Wednesday, April 9, Tim Burdick, CFA and Nat Kellogg, CFA will be speaking at an educational session hosted by the Community Foundation of Middle Tennessee: “Maximizing Impact Through Smart Investments: A Conversation with Marquette Associates.”

The session will address the following themes for attendees:

  • Investment Philosophy
  • Snapshot of the Portfolio
  • Strategic Portfolio Adjustments
  • Marquette’s Investment Approach
  • Market Trends and Donor Impact

For more information, please visit the Community Foundation of Middle Tennessee website.

New Year, New President…Same Outlook?

From an investor’s perspective, the current environment feels lot like it did twelve months ago: U.S. equity markets returned over 20% the prior year, fixed income is (still) offering attractive yields, and overall portfolio performance was positive for most programs. Nevertheless, nothing lasts forever and sentiment can shift on a dime. It is also likely that some of President Trump’s policies will have an impact on markets, with the specific impact varying by the policy and asset class.

In this edition:

  • U.S. Economy and Policy Expectations
  • Fixed Income: “If you liked it last year, you’ll like it this year”
  • U.S. Equity: Concentration risk still looms
  • Non-U.S. Equities: Positive earnings outlook, policy uncertainty
  • Real Assets: Real estate bottoms, infrastructure demand robust
  • Private Markets: Private equity on the rebound, private credit still compelling

Marquette Speaking at 2025 Midwest Institutional Forum 4/9–10

On April 9–10, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Jessica Noviskis, CFA, Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, James Torgerson, and Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA will be speaking at the 11th Annual Midwest Institutional Forum hosted by Markets Group in Chicago.

On Wednesday, Jessica will be joining the opening panel discussion, “Navigating Markets in 2025: Investment Strategies and Macroeconomic Outlook,” described as follows: The financial landscapes continue to evolve in an era marked by unprecedented global events. Investors are faced with the imperative challenge to construct resilient portfolios in the face of economic shifts and market volatility. This panel will shed light on the current macroeconomic landscape, providing insights into global economic trends and their potential impact on various asset classes. From equities and fixed income to alternative investments, our experts will share their perspectives on where opportunities lie and the potential pitfalls to avoid in the pursuit of optimal asset allocation.

Greg will be joining a panel later in the morning entitled “Portfolio Construction – Finding the Best Opportunities in 2025,” described as follows: Many are calling this a new investment era with opportunities for investors that have never been seen before. Market movements, fiscal challenges, the denominator effect, and revised globalization have all created unique opportunities for investors who go well beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio construct. Join our panel of experts as they aim to answer several key questions, including:

  • What will a “diversified” portfolio look like in 2025? And what will it look like over the next 5-10 years?
  • How are investors approaching portfolio construction and allocation decisions in the current landscape?
  • Where do they see opportunities across asset classes and sectors, and how is this impacting their decision-making with new and existing managers?

That afternoon, Frank will be conducting an interview, “Opportunities in Public Credit: A Systematic Approach to High Yield,” described as follows: Systematic fixed income strategies have entered the mainstream, having seen their assets more than double over the last year. They are poised to grow further as innovative trading techniques and abundance of structured data provide opportunities to lower transaction costs and generate diversified alpha streams in less liquid asset classes such as high yield. As fixed income is entering a potential golden age given historically high yields, we will discuss how a systematic approach to credit and innovation in credit portfolio trading can help with generating trading efficiencies and targeting differentiated alpha drivers in high yield.

James will also be conducting an interview: “Insurance-Linked Securities – Continued Growth of a Fundamentally Uncorrelated Asset Class.” This fireside chat will focus on the increased interest in insurance-linked securities as a key allocation for diversified portfolios. Specific discussion topics will include an overview of the role of insurance-linked investments in an institutional portfolio, how allocators have been evaluating opportunities of late and the latest developments & growth of the asset class. For allocators newer to the asset class, the session should provide key highlights to use in internal investment strategy meetings and/or consultant-client reviews as well as provide the latest talking points important to reintroducing an opportunity in the space or to evaluating an existing investment.

On Thursday, Evan will be moderating a panel entitled, “Effectively Investing Through Private Markets; Diversification & Returns.” As investors search for additional sources of revenue and methods for portfolio diversification in the volatile and changing environment, private markets stand out as an area of opportunities. The panel brings together leading alternatives investors and allocators to share the role private equity, private debt, venture capital and more play in their portfolios and what they look for in managers to meet their objectives in these asset classes. Panelists will address risks and opportunities across capital structures, expected returns and the operational requirements for managing the unique complexities in private markets.

The Midwest Institutional Forum brings together institutional investors, consultants, and industry experts from across the Midwest. For more information, please visit the event website.

Marquette Speaking at Titan Investors 2025 Chicago Institutional Active Exchange 3/26

On Wednesday, April 26, Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA and Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA will be speaking at Titan Investors’ Chicago Institutional Active Exchange.

Greg will be moderating the Asset Allocation Panel – Institutional Portfolio Construction in a Dynamic Market Environment and Frank will be moderating the Economic Outlook Panel – Megatrends in a Transforming World & Investing for Resiliency at the event, which will bring together leading institutional asset allocators from the region for a full day of educational panels and roundtable discussions.

Titan Investors is a boutique consulting firm that connects asset allocators and investment managers to share ideas, build relationships, and drive business in a focused environment. For more information, visit their website.