Zombie, Inc.

Private equity has always had a few portfolio companies that refused to leave the party. Today, however, the industry appears to be hosting an entire zombie convention. The occasional underperformer has given way to a growing pool of aging assets that remain operational and solvent but increasingly difficult to exit. According to PitchBook, more than one-third of U.S. private equity-backed companies have been held for over five years, with hold periods for thousands now exceeding the traditional exit window. The causes of this trend are not mysterious. In hindsight, the industry may have committed the cardinal sin of every market cycle: mistaking favorable conditions for permanent conditions. Between 2020 and 2021, sponsors acquired businesses amid an environment of near-zero interest rates, abundant leverage, and valuation multiples that appeared destined to move only upward. That said, when rates rose and multiples compressed in 2022, two of private equity’s favorite value drivers, cheap debt and multiple expansion, suddenly disappeared. The result was a cohort of companies purchased at EBITDA multiples of 12x or greater that now struggle to justify valuations of 10x or less.

These “zombie companies” tend to share a similar profile. Specifically, they tend to be older assets with extended hold periods, elevated leverage, slowing earnings growth, and limited buyer interest. Further, many have not completed a refinancing, recapitalization, add-on acquisition, or meaningful transaction in years. It is important to note that zombie companies tend not to be bankrupt. In fact, that is part of the problem. Thanks to covenant-lite loans, amend-and-extend transactions, and payment-in-kind interest, companies can survive almost indefinitely without truly improving. In short, these businesses are less “walking dead” and more “comfortably numb.”

For limited partners, the implications of this dynamic are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. From a liquidity standpoint, DPI (a key performance metric in private equity that measures the cash returned to investors relative to the capital they invested) has lagged historical norms in recent time (particularly for 2018–2022 vintages), while TVPI (a metric that measures a private equity fund’s total return compared to the actual money investors have paid in) has remained stubbornly stable. In plain English, paper value is not turning into cash for private equity investors. Indeed, limited partners expected distributions but have instead received an education on quarterly valuations and continuation vehicles. More subtly, zombies threaten one of private equity’s defining advantages: efficient capital recycling. As managers spend more time extending maturities and defending marks (rather than sourcing exits), capital cannot be redeployed into new opportunities. Continuation vehicles, while often legitimate solutions to liquidity challenges, increasingly risk looking less like a value-creation tool and more like the industry’s version of moving leftovers into a different container.

The good news for limited partners is that the rise of zombie companies appears to be a growth inhibitor for the asset class rather than a systemic crisis, and it is important to remember that most private equity funds are designed to absorb precisely this kind of stress. The bad news is that patience, once considered a virtue, may now be considered a holding strategy. As the living learn, the dead rarely disappear on their own.

2026 Halftime Market Insights

This video is a recording of a live webinar held July 23 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first half of 2026 across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in the coming months.

 

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Fred Huang, Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Hayley McCollum, Senior Research Analyst

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To CV or Not to CV?

Since traditional exit routes have remained constrained in recent years due to higher interest rates, valuation gaps, and a subdued IPO market, continuation vehicles (“CVs”) have become an increasingly important liquidity tool for private equity investors. At a high level, CVs are investment structures in which a sponsor transfers one or more portfolio companies from an existing fund into a newly formed fund, allowing existing investors to either cash out or roll their investment while providing the manager with additional time to create value. While CVs do help to mitigate a challenging exit environment, they are also raising several considerations for fund investors. For instance, many are concerned about potential conflicts related to valuation, governance, and asset selection given the fund manager’s direct involvement in both the sale and acquisition process. These concerns often call for active discussions about asset valuation if third-party sales are considered. The economics of CVs have also been called into question by some, as the transfer of assets into a new vehicle can reset management fees and performance incentives for fund managers. Moreover, some CV structures include performance-related tiered carried interest arrangements, which may eventually result in a higher-than-industry-average fee paid by fund investors. Additionally, limited partners are closely examining the quality of assets being transferred since CVs can potentially reduce the impact of underperforming portfolio companies on a primary fund’s track record. CVs also offer less visibility into a fund manager’s ability to achieve traditional third-party exits, which remains an important measure of execution and realization capabilities.

More recently, the emergence of “CV-squared” transactions (in which assets move from one CV into another) has led to even more discussion around the ultimate path to liquidity and the alignment of incentives between fund managers and investors. While the rise of CVs is clearly a response to a market with constrained traditional exits, it is important to note that these structures are creating a more circular liquidity ecosystem that may make it harder for investors to evaluate portfolio company quality and exit opportunities. Ultimately, while continuation vehicles can provide valuable flexibility in a difficult exit environment, investors should carefully evaluate each transaction to ensure that governance, valuation, and incentive structures remain aligned with their long-term interests.

The VC Convergence Era

When Benchmark, one of Silicon Valley’s most renowned early-stage venture capital firms, closed $2 billion across two new funds this month (including its first-ever dedicated growth vehicle at roughly $1.3 billion), headlines were made. For nearly two decades, Benchmark was one of the industry’s most disciplined organizations, with funds capped at around $500 million and a conviction that backing the right companies at the right prices was preferable to deploying capital at scale. That thesis ultimately produced one of the strongest track records in venture capital.

Benchmark’s more recent moves are indicative of broader market dynamics. Indeed, VC-backed businesses are staying private for longer, an increasing share of enterprise value is being created after the traditional venture stage, and the capital required to participate in the initial phases of a company’s growth is now greater than what early-stage funds were built to provide. According to PitchBook, the median time to exit for unicorn companies was 9.2 years as of the end of last year. For an early-stage investor, that figure represents nearly a decade during which ownership stakes are tested via various financing rounds. For instance, a $400 million fund with pro-rata rights can participate in early rounds, but maintaining meaningful ownership across 10 years of financing requires capital that traditional venture funds were not designed to deploy. This means that the investor who backed the right company at the seed stage but lacked the capital to hold the position through subsequent financing rounds effectively did the difficult work of selection for someone else’s benefit.

In recent time, leading firms including Founders Fund, a16z, Thrive Capital, and Sequoia have launched dedicated growth vehicles, aiming to build out the capacity required to support portfolio companies across full lifecycles and avoid handing them off at the growth stage. It is important to point out, however, that growth investing is not simply venture investing with larger check sizes. Specifically, entry valuations are higher at this stage, requiring investors to underwrite not just a company’s potential but the return achievable at a given price. To that point, outcomes depend more heavily on public market conditions and exit timing, which are factors that no investor can fully control. In conclusion, venture capital is entering an era of convergence in which the most competitive firms are defined not by the stage at which they invest, but by their ability to support exceptional companies across a full lifecycle, meaning growth capabilities are increasingly becoming table stakes for venture firms seeking to build enduring franchises.

1Q 2026 Market Insights Webinar

This video is a recording of a live webinar held April 16 by Marquette’s research team analyzing the first quarter across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in the coming months.

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Fred Huang, Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Hayley McCollum, Senior Research Analyst

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If you have any questions, please send our team an email.

 

Pulling the Right Value Creation Levers

In the period between 2009 and 2022, private equity managers thrived amid an environment of low interest rates and rising asset prices, which led to financial engineering serving as a primary driver of portfolio value. In recent years, however, higher interest rates, elevated valuations, and tighter exit conditions have reduced the effectiveness of this value creation method. As a result, financial engineering has shifted from a core value driver to a supporting tool, prompting firms to increasingly focus on operational improvements within portfolio companies. Indeed, top-line growth and margin expansion are the key areas of value creation today, with revenue growth accounting for roughly 54% of value creation for deals that saw exits between 2017 and 2024. This dynamic can be attributed to the role of revenue growth as a sustainable and longer-term source of value creation, as it supports revenue base expansion, enables EBITDA growth, and facilitates more favorable valuation outcomes.

To drive both growth and profitability, private equity firms deploy a range of operational initiatives, including cost transformation, pricing optimization, technology integration, and supply chain improvements. While studies show that operations and pricing are the most effective levers in value creation playbooks, it is important to remember that execution is just as important as planning. To that point, a recent study found that more than half of executives cited poor implementation as a primary and controllable cause of underperformance of their businesses. Ultimately, as operational improvements become more crucial to value creation, private equity firms that can execute with discipline, particularly across revenue growth and margin expansion, will differentiate themselves when it comes to delivering returns and building more resilient and scalable businesses.

The Seller Becomes the Buyer

Most have traditionally viewed a successful exit for a venture-backed start-up as either an IPO or an acquisition by a larger strategic or public company. That long-standing dynamic is gradually shifting, as start-ups are now more active than ever as acquirers. Indeed, what was once a buyer landscape dominated by strategics and public corporations now increasingly includes venture-backed firms. According to PitchBook-NVCA data, VC-backed buyers accounted for more than 38% of total U.S. venture M&A activity last year, up from roughly 20% a decade ago, with 2025 marking seven consecutive years of increasing participation. Specifically, more than 387 start-ups were acquired by venture-backed companies last year, compared with 177 in 2015. Although overall exit volumes remain below 2021 peak levels, the steady rise in startup-led acquisitions reflects a structural shift toward internal consolidation within the venture ecosystem.

The drivers behind this shift are largely pragmatic, as capital remains available but far more selective. Growth equity investors are increasingly concentrated within perceived category leaders, while companies that fall slightly below that threshold face a more challenging fundraising environment. For scaling start-ups that have survived earlier rounds of capital selection, acquisitions can serve as an efficient strategic accelerant. Rather than depleting cash reserves to build adjacent features, expand geographically, or acquire customers organically, management teams can accelerate these objectives through M&A, adding revenue, product capabilities, or talent in a single transaction. At the same time, the bar for IPO readiness has risen materially in the last five years, as public investors are increasingly prioritizing profitability, operating leverage, and durable revenue growth. For venture-backed companies aiming to meet these standards, combining with a competitor or complementary platform can create scale and margin expansion more quickly than standalone execution. In some cases, consolidation represents the most rational path forward in a more disciplined capital cycle. This trend is visible at the upper end of the market as well. For instance, OpenAI completed five acquisitions across hardware design, experimentation tooling, fintech AI capabilities, and model infrastructure in 2025 alone. The fact that one of the world’s most valuable private companies is actively using M&A as a growth lever reinforces the idea that an acquisition is no longer solely a means of exit but increasingly a tool for expansion.

While it remains too early to declare a permanent transformation in venture markets, it is clear start-up-led consolidation is becoming more common and strategically meaningful. As companies remain private for longer and develop greater operational scale, their roles as acquirers may continue to expand.

Pining for Evergreens

In recent years, access to traditionally illiquid private markets has expanded through the rapid growth of evergreen funds, which provide investors with more favorable subscription and liquidity terms than traditional closed-end vehicles. New evergreen fund launches notably increased from 30 in 2018 to 107 in 2025, with alternative credit strategies emerging as the primary driver of this growth (36 new fund launches last year). Many new funds have also come to market in the private equity, real estate, and infrastructure spaces, and these dynamics can be observed in the chart above. There are more than 500 active evergreen funds available to investors currently.

Broad adoption of the evergreen structure reflects growing demand for more illiquid assets across both institutional and retail investors. In addition to the advantageous terms mentioned above, many offer seasoned and diversified exposures, which can help mitigate the J-curve effect that is exhibited within private markets. Many evergreen funds also have lower investment minimums and less operational complexity relative to closed-end vehicles. All of these factors have contributed to the proliferation of evergreens detailed above. It is important to note, however, that there are drawbacks associated with evergreen fund investing, including potential liquidity mismatches and gating risk. Overall, while evergreen funds have broadened access to private markets through greater flexibility and lower barriers to entry, investors must balance these benefits against the structural liquidity and redemption risks inherent in illiquid asset classes.

Seventy-Five Horses and Two Pieces of Plastic

Anyone who has gone snowmobiling knows it can be simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. Throttling across snow and through a forest powered by a 75-horsepower engine with two plastic skis to steer makes it hard to feel like one has complete control; 30 mph in the open air feels more like 100!

Nonetheless, operating a snowmobile is pretty straightforward: The throttle is a right-thumb button, the brake is a left-hand squeeze lever. Beyond those two controls, it’s up to the driver to effectively navigate the trail, with the critical concession that the terrain is out of anyone’s complete control. Which brings me to our 2026 market outlook.

The “throttles” for portfolios are the usual constituents: equities, below investment grade credit, and private markets. The “brakes” are investment grade fixed income, particularly Treasuries which can slow a portfolio’s losses if the market tumbles. The terrain is naturally the actual path that each of these asset classes will follow in 2026. Since 2022 the equity market ride has been mostly exhilarating, save for some of the terrifying moments like the market dip after Liberation Day. But that’s in the rearview mirror, and the focus is what is around the bend. Will the thrill continue, or should we ease up on the throttle?

2026 Market Preview

This video is a recording of a live webinar held January 15 by Marquette’s research team analyzing 2025 across the economy and various asset classes as well as themes we’ll be monitoring in 2026.

 

Our quarterly Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real assets, and private markets, with commentary by our research analysts and directors.

Featuring:
Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research
Frank Valle, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Fixed Income
James Torgerson, Senior Research Analyst
Catherine Hillier, Senior Research Analyst
David Hernandez, CFA, Director of Traditional Manager Search
Evan Frazier, CFA, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst
Dennis Yu, Research Analyst
Amy Miller, Associate Director of Private Equity
Chad Sheaffer, CFA, CAIA, Associate Director of Private Credit

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If you have any questions, please send our team an email.