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Making Sense of Oil and Energy Prices

December 14, 2015

Flash talk by Olu Rosanwo, CAIA, at Marquette’s 2015 Investment Symposium on making sense of oil and energy prices

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document in the web post. General description: Two-line chart showing prices for live cattle futures and corn futures. Chart subtitle: Higher beef prices could lead to more expensive cookouts this Labor Day weekend. Chart source: Bloomberg as of August 29, 2023. Chart visual description: Data is monthly. Left Y-axis is labeled “$/Pound” corresponding to Live Cattle Futures slate line and ranges from $0 to $2. X-axis ranges from June 1992 to August 2023. Right Y-axis is labeled “$/Bushel” corresponding to Corn Futures light green line and ranges from $0 to $9. Chart data description: Please contact us for the full dataset. Latest data as of August 29: Live cattle $1.81/lb; Corn $4.69/lb. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

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Two-line chart comparing gasoline prices and CPI month over month. Chart subtitle: Macroeconomic shocks tend to drive up the correlation between gasoline and overall CPI. Chart visual description: All data monthly. Left y-axis is labeled Gasoline ($/gallon) and ranges from $0 to $6. X-axis spans dates from December 2006 through December 2022, with labels at 6-month increments, thus alternating June to December. Right y-axis is labeled CPI Month/Month and spans -2.0% to +1.5%, with 0.5% increments. X-axis crosses 0 for gasoline price y-axis and -2.0% for CPI y-axis. Slate line plots Gasoline Price; dark teal line plots CPI M/M. Green dotted arrows highlight Strong Positive Correlation over several periods. Chart data description: For period shown, gasoline prices peaked in June of 2022 at $4.93 per gallon. The next most recent peak outside 2022 was in April 2012 at $3.90 and the next closest peak was in July 2008 at $4.06. Prices have generally increased since 2020, though between June and December this year they have receded. Month-over-month CPI generally has hovered between -0.5% and +0.5% but the two tend to move similarly amid more intense economic turbulence. Chart source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as of December 31, 2022. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

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