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On December 14, 2016, the FOMC announced its unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target fed funds rate to between 0.50% and 0.75%. This was the first increase since last December’s, with the hike prior to that occurring in 2006 before the Great Recession.
This move was widely anticipated and well-communicated to the markets. As such, fed funds futures carried a 100% implied probability of a hike going into it, and most – if not all – of the hike was already priced into global markets. Markets over the past one and a half days since the hike have remained relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by only 12bp to end at 2.6%, while the one-year Treasury yield rose by just 3bp to end at 0.9% and the 30-year Treasury yield rose by 2bp to end at 3.1%. The Core Aggregate bond index and the Intermediate Government/Credit index were down only 0.5%, while the 1-3 Yr Government/Credit index fell 0.2%; the Long Government/Credit index also decreased 0.2%. The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index was up 0.1%, the Credit Suisse High Yield index was down 0.3%, and the JPMorgan emerging markets debt EMBI Global Diversified index decreased by less than 0.1%. The dollar rose while gold declined, as expected. The S&P 500 declined less than 0.1%.
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