What Does the Fed’s Rate Hike Mean for 2017?

December 16, 2016

On December 14, 2016, the FOMC announced its unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target fed funds rate to between 0.50% and 0.75%. This was the first increase since last December’s, with the hike prior to that occurring in 2006 before the Great Recession.

This move was widely anticipated and well-communicated to the markets. As such, fed funds futures carried a 100% implied probability of a hike going into it, and most – if not all – of the hike was already priced into global markets. Markets over the past one and a half days since the hike have remained relatively calm. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by only 12bp to end at 2.6%, while the one-year Treasury yield rose by just 3bp to end at 0.9% and the 30-year Treasury yield rose by 2bp to end at 3.1%. The Core Aggregate bond index and the Intermediate Government/Credit index were down only 0.5%, while the 1-3 Yr Government/Credit index fell 0.2%; the Long Government/Credit index also decreased 0.2%. The Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan index was up 0.1%, the Credit Suisse High Yield index was down 0.3%, and the JPMorgan emerging markets debt EMBI Global Diversified index decreased by less than 0.1%. The dollar rose while gold declined, as expected. The S&P 500 declined less than 0.1%.

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