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Where is Inflation Headed

Three-line chart showing Consumer Price Index year-over-year growth (representing actual inflation) and 2- and 5-year breakeven inflation rate (measuring difference in yield between U.S. Treasury bonds and TIPS of the same maturity). Chart subtitle: CPI and breakeven inflation rate data can help shape future inflation expectations Chart description: Y-axis shows range of percentages from -6% to +6%. X-axis shows years from 2004 to present (though labeled by year, so final label is 2020). Headline CPI Y/Y is green line; 2-Year Breakeven is purple; 5-Year Breakeven is teal. Labels on chart highlight that Y/Y headline CPI peaked twice after 2008's financial crisis. In 2011, the 5-year breakeven fell below 2-year breakeven as leading indicator of CPI declining and normalizing a year later. Most recently, Y/Y headline CPI running hot again but potentially plateauing and the 5-year breakeven is already below the 2-year breakeven and both potentially plateauing. Chart sources: Marquette Research, Bloomberg; latest available as of August 13, 2021.
Posted on August 17, 2021August 17, 2021 Full size 1433 × 775

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Published inWhere is Inflation Headed?

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