Yield Curve Inversion Intensifies: Will This Time Be Different?

March 26, 2019

An inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve — one in which long term rates are lower than short term rates — is known by investors to be a predictive indicator of a market correction and subsequent recession to come. On Friday, the yield curve inverted between the one-month to one-year range vs. the 10-year for the first time since 2007, with the one-month to one-year range yielding 2.45%–2.49% vs. the 10-year yielding 2.44%. This is an extension of the inversion between the two-year and five-year, which began last December.

In this newsletter, we put the current yield curve inversion into historical context, examining the indicators of previous inversions and the various market corrections and recessions that have followed. We also look ahead, taking into account current optimism regarding Fed rate cuts and various other indicators in the credit markets, and note how investors can prepare for further changes.

Read> Yield Curve Inversion Intensifies: Will This Time Be Different?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

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This chart description is for illustrative purposes only and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please see full disclosures at end of PDF document. General description: Three-line chart comparing S&P 500, Russell 2000, and 10-Year Treasury Yield in 2023. Chart subtitle: Movements in yields served as both headwinds and tailwinds for stock performance in 2023. Chart source: Bloomberg and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as of January 17, 2024. Chart visual description: Left Y-axis labeled “Cumulative Return” and ranges from -10% to +30%. X-axis labeled in monthly increments, from Jan-23 through Jan-24. Right Y-axis labeled “Yield” and ranges from 2.0% to 5.5%. Aug. 1 labeled “10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs Above 4%.” Oct. 27 labeled “Equity market bottom and near-peak yields.” Dec. 29 labeled “End of ‘Santa Claus rally.’” S&P 500 Index plotted in purple line. Russell 2000 Index plotted in light purple line. 10-Year Treasury Yield plotted in green line. Chart data description: Please contact us for the full dataset. End chart description. See disclosures at end of document.

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