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Should Investors Be Concerned About Stagflation

Line chart showing stagflation period in the 1970s in contrast to current crisis and expectations for stagflation. Chart subtitle: Stagflation is typically caused by an external shock that breaks the inverse relationship between the inflation and unemployment rate. Chart description: Left Y-axis shows Inflation, Unemployment Rate, and GDP Growth ranging from -30-20%. X-axis shows years spanning 1970-2024. Right Y-axis shows Cumulative Return ranging from -100-1500%. Period of stagflation from 1970 to about 1983 is highlighted. Inflation, Unemployment Rate, and GDP Growth are projected for 2021-2024. Above X-axis, Inflation, Unemployment, and GDP are all elevated during period of Stagflation, then relatively low until 2020. The 2008 Crisis shows elevated unemployment and negative GDP growth, but stable inflation. All projected to return to normal levels. Below X-axis, on secondary Y-axis, S&P GSCI, MSCI EAFE, S&P 500, Barclays U.S. Agg, and NCREIF NPI National returns are illustrated for period of stagflation only. S&P GSCI had highest returns. Chart sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMF, eVestment.
Posted on February 10, 2021February 10, 2021 Full size 688 × 372

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