Much Ado About Corona?

February 13, 2020 | Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Research Analyst

By now, you have all read the headlines and watched various news commentators detail the perils of the latest pneumonia outbreak, 2019 Novel Coronavirus (“nCov”), impacting China, nearby countries, and a few of their western trade partners. As of February 13th, confirmed cases in mainland China had reached over 60,000 patients, and as was broadcast on February 11th, the death total has surpassed 1,000. Even though these health figures are alarming, we have experienced similar outbreaks in the past and can take some comfort in knowing that eventual containment — and a vaccine — are in the works.

From a financial market’s standpoint, one common theme we are hearing from economists and portfolio managers is that, similar to the SARS outbreak of 2002–2003, the recent sharp, nCoV-driven market sell-off is temporary and the overall market impact will be minimal over the long-term. This chart of the week shows the short-term returns of the broader market — using the MSCI All Country World Index as the guidepost — during the SARS outbreak, as well as the current coronavirus. As shown in the chart, during the first three months of the SARS outbreak the MSCI ACWI posted a -2.9% return. However, six months after the initial SARS patient, the MSCI ACWI return was back in positive territory, up 2.8%.

While comparing SARS and nCoV makes sense from a regional and virus strain commonality, one must also consider the economic circumstances surrounding each outbreak. The supply chain connectivity between China and the broader world has advanced in leaps and bounds since 2003. The potential knock-on effects of an extended drop in Chinese factory productivity could slow, for instance, the technology supply chains for Apple, LG, Google, and more. Hence, economists are probably spot on that the market will rebound, but the details of the true impact on global growth are yet to be defined.

Print PDF > Much Ado About Corona?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA
Research Analyst

Get to Know Nicole

Related Content

05.28.2020

The Confluence of Small-Cap Stocks and the Economy

Small businesses are often thought of as the backbone of the U.S. economy. Long before the coronavirus, the Russell 2000…

05.22.2020

Brighter Lights at the End of a Shorter Tunnel

Biotech company Moderna’s announcement earlier this week that its coronavirus vaccine successfully helped healthy adults produce antibodies against COVID-19 sent…

05.20.2020

There’s FAAMG and Everyone Else

Since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 23rd, the stock market has taken off while economic fundamentals have worsened. As…

05.14.2020

It’s Not Bad News for All Energy Stocks

With the steady stream of negative economic data, record-shattering unemployment figures, and ballooning government deficits, it has been hard to…

05.11.2020

Is It Game Over for Value Stocks?

Over the last ten years, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by an average 5.3% per year, and the differential…

05.08.2020

Declining Jobless Claims When Unemployment is 14.7%?

New jobless claims fell from a peak of 6.9 million for the week ending March 27th to 3.2 million for…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >