Signs of a Market Bottom?

April 03, 2020 | David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities, ,

In just a matter of weeks, U.S. equities went from all-time highs to bear market correction territory. As of March 20th, the S&P 500 had a drawdown of -31.9% from its February 19th high. Following the steep sell-off, equities subsequently rallied the week of March 23rd, logging weekly gains that were among their best in history. With equities having officially fallen into correction territory then subsequently appearing to show signs of stabilization and fiscal/monetary stimulus poised to (theoretically) cushion the impact of COVID-19, investors are left to wonder if the worst is over.

However, identifying market bottoms is a difficult endeavor. Every bear market is unique and this one is no different. Based on the severity of economic contraction thus far, it is likely that we are headed for — or possibly already in — a recession. Notably, though, not all bear markets coincide with a recession and not all recessions coincide with a bear market. Given that a recession is looming if not already here, we examined the last 40 years of data when bear markets coincided with recessions to see if we can identify signs of a bottom. Over the past 40 years, there were four such periods: 1973–1975, 1981–1982, 2000–2001, and 2007–2009. In the following newsletter, we review four categories of data over these time periods: technical, valuation, economic, and COVID-19 to see if we can identify consistent indicators of a market bottom.

Read > Signs of a Market Bottom?


The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.


David Hernandez, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities

Get to Know David

Related Content


Bond Downgrades Subsiding

As a key indicator that we have come a long way from the late-March panic and that both the economy…


Mounting Bankruptcies Reflect New Consumption Patterns

COVID-19 has caused a slew of bankruptcies across multiple industries as companies struggle to meet their cash needs. Re-openings might…


2020 Halftime Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the second quarter’s performance and coincides with our 2Q Asset…


Second Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The second quarter of 2020 proved to be as eventful as the first, with slow economic results being largely ignored…


Coastal COVID: Diverging State Responses

Nearly a month into summer, the tragedy of COVID-19 rages on globally and in the U.S. As of July 13th,…


Best Historical Performing Asset Class Is on Sale!

It is critical for institutional investors to understand the importance of both relative and absolute value when considering investment allocations….

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >