Signs of a Market Bottom?

April 03, 2020 | David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities, ,

In just a matter of weeks, U.S. equities went from all-time highs to bear market correction territory. As of March 20th, the S&P 500 had a drawdown of -31.9% from its February 19th high. Following the steep sell-off, equities subsequently rallied the week of March 23rd, logging weekly gains that were among their best in history. With equities having officially fallen into correction territory then subsequently appearing to show signs of stabilization and fiscal/monetary stimulus poised to (theoretically) cushion the impact of COVID-19, investors are left to wonder if the worst is over.

However, identifying market bottoms is a difficult endeavor. Every bear market is unique and this one is no different. Based on the severity of economic contraction thus far, it is likely that we are headed for — or possibly already in — a recession. Notably, though, not all bear markets coincide with a recession and not all recessions coincide with a bear market. Given that a recession is looming if not already here, we examined the last 40 years of data when bear markets coincided with recessions to see if we can identify signs of a bottom. Over the past 40 years, there were four such periods: 1973–1975, 1981–1982, 2000–2001, and 2007–2009. In the following newsletter, we review four categories of data over these time periods: technical, valuation, economic, and COVID-19 to see if we can identify consistent indicators of a market bottom.

Read > Signs of a Market Bottom?


The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.


David Hernandez, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities

Get to Know David

Related Content


Equities Falter Amid Uncertainty

October has been a tale of two months for equity market participants. While the first half of the month saw…


Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The third quarter of 2020 featured a major rebound in economic data amid an intense battle for the presidency and…


Will a Vaccine Be the End of COVID-19?

Simmering in the background of the presidential race and stimulus talks remains a crucial step towards fully re-opening the country:…


Q3 2020 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the third quarter’s performance, coinciding with our 3Q Asset Allocation Update newsletter (coming next…


ESG AUM Continues to Grow

Over the past five years, there has been a substantial increase in assets under management (“AUM”) for ESG (environmental, social,…


Distressed Investing: Missed Opportunity?

As the calendar flipped to 2020, many market prognosticators agreed that one of the longest economic expansions on record would…

More articles

Subscribe to Research Email Alerts

Research Email Alert Subscription

Research alerts keep you updated on our latest research publications. Simply enter your contact information, choose the research alerts you would like to receive and click Subscribe. Alerts will be sent as research is published.

We respect your privacy. We will never share or sell your information.

Thank You

We appreciate your interest in Marquette Associates.

If you have questions or need further information, please contact us directly and we will respond to your inquiry within 24 hours.

Contact Us >