Analysis of Debt Ceiling Debate

July 2011 Investment Perspectives

As the August 2nd deadline for a resolution to the debt ceiling debate quickly approaches, many questions are emerging about the ramifications for investors in the U.S. truly does default on its debt obligations. Not surprisingly, opinions differ on what the bottom line impact will be for financial markets and investors. Unfortunately, the only consensus among market pundits is that there is no consensus. It should be noted that the current situation is extremely fluid, so portions of this newsletter may be out of date by the time it is read.

The following analysis tackles the biggest questions debated by analysts and market participants:

  • Will the U.S. Treasury default on its debt?
  • Will a major rating agency downgrade the U.S. credit rating?
  • What impact could a downgrade have on the U.S. fixed income market? U.S. equity? Non-U.S. equity?

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Short Duration vs. Core Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment

April 2011 Investment Perspectives

In today’s low rate environment, interest rate risk has emerged as a primary concern for market participants. Given that the Fed has held interest rates near zero for over two years, many investors are worried about the effect of an increase in rates on their portfolios. As interest rates rise, the discounted value of future cash flows to bond investors falls, causing a drop in the price of bond portfolios.

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2011 Market Preview

2011 Market Preview

Overall, 2010 was a positive year for investors, as capital markets continued their upward swing and economic growth showed further signs of progress.

Most major stock indices (U.S. and non-U.S.) posted double-digit positive returns in 2010, with small caps generally outperforming large caps. The bond market benefited from another fall in interest rates, therefore delivering positive returns to all of the major indices, with sectors such as high yield and senior secured loans again recording the largest gains. Alternative asset classes had more of a mixed 2010: hedge funds disappointed, while real estate and private equity began to show signs of life. On the economic front, GDP growth continued its positive trend, while inflation remained low. Despite these facts, many questions still remain. Will the stock market experience a correction in 2011? What should we expect from alternative asset classes? Is inflation a threat to the economy? Will the unemployment rate improve?

In the following articles, we will take a closer look at each asset class, examining the major news items from 2010, as well as critical issues for 2011. Each article contains insightful analysis and key themes to monitor over the coming year, themes which will underlie the actual performance of the asset classes covered. Articles are offered for the following asset classes: fixed income, U.S. equities, non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, and private equity. As a launching point, we take a broad view of the economy and examine some crucial macroeconomic topics as they pertain to the U.S. economy.

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3Q 2010 Investment Perspectives: Details of QE2 Released

In a move widely expected by investors and analysts, yesterday the Fed announced details of further quantitative easing (“QE”), commonly referred to as QE2. Similar to the first round of quantitative easing initiated between January 2009 and March 2010, QE2 will feature the Fed expanding its holdings of Treasury securities in an effort to promote growth, maintain low interest rates, and reduce unemployment.

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2Q 2010 Investment Perspectives

Financial Reform Bill Signed into Law
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act was signed into law by President Obama on July 21, 2010. Broadly considered to be the most notable overhaul of financial regulation since the 1930s, the bill targets a wide variety of topics related to financial reform. The following article highlights the major points of the legislation.

Potential Impact of Pending Legislation on Stable Value Investments
With nearly 700 billion dollars in assets, stable value funds are an important part of many retirement plans. Stable value funds have proven popular as a conservative investment option for investors striving to maintain principal while earning a higher return than cash.

Due to pending financial regulation legislation, stable value funds could potentially face a different regulatory environment going forward. As stable value is an important asset class for many retirement investors, Marquette Associates has been actively monitoring the possible effects of new financial regulation on the stable value market. This article will first explain how stable value funds work, and then discuss why they could be affected by new regulation, and what those potential effects may be.

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1Q 2010 Investment Perspectives

Proposed Financial Reform
Note: this article was written in early April, before various changes to the proposed legislation were made.
As we stand in the aftermath of the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, we must reflect upon several of the causes that led us to this point.  The primary causes of the downturn were a result of poor risk management, oversight, and regulation. In response to these factors, lawmakers have proposed a bill that attempts to address several of the shortcomings in our current regulatory/financial system. The bill authored by Chris Dodd and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs intends to address the following primary issues:

  • Protect/educate consumers
  • Identify systemic risks
  • Eliminate loopholes
  • Streamline bank supervision
  • Input on executive compensation
  • Transparency and accountability for credit rating agencies and financial products
  • Strengthen oversight to prevent fraud and manipulation

Today’s Environment: An Unusually Steep Yield Curve
Today’s interest rate environment is unique in American post-war economic history. With the federal funds rate at the zero lower bound and likely to stay low for an “extended period,” the yield curve is as steep as it has ever been since the 1950’s.

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2010 Market Preview

Though the scars of the 2008 financial crisis remain, 2009 helped to alleviate some of the pain as financial markets rallied and tidbits of positive economic news emerged. Most major stock indices posted positive returns in 2009, and the bond market held steady (with the exception of U.S. Treasuries coming back to earth), with sectors such as high yield and senior secured loans recording record returns. Alternative asset classes had more of a mixed 2009: hedge funds reversed their 2008 struggles, while debt access and legacy assets continued to haunt the real estate and private equity markets. On the economic front, GDP turned positive in the third quarter, perhaps signaling that the recession was over and brighter days lie ahead. Despite these facts, many questions still remain. Has the stock market rally outpaced the economic recovery? What should we expect from alternative asset classes? Is inflation a threat to the economy? When will banks resume normal lending practices? Will the unemployment rate improve?

In the following articles, we will take a closer look at each asset class, examining the major news items from 2009, as well as critical issues for 2010. Each article contains insightful analysis and key themes to monitor over the coming year, themes which will underlie the actual performance of the asset classes covered. Articles are offered for the following asset classes: fixed income, domestic equities, international equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, and private equity. As a launching point, we take a broad view of the economy and examine some crucial macroeconomic topics as they pertain to the U.S. economy.

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3Q 2009 Investment Perspectives

Update on Government Stimulus Programs
With the United States’ economy plunging into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression, policymakers have been faced with the unenviable task of reviving an $11 trillion economy saddled with debt and struggling to maintain its lead in the global marketplace. As mounting losses at the nation’s “too big to fail” financial institutions were agitating the global markets, the government was being urged to intervene in order to avoid a systemic collapse. After the traditional tools used to rouse the economy during cyclical downturns provided little relief, it quickly became clear that this unprecedented crisis would require an unprecedented response.  Displaying little faith in free market capitalism’s “invisible hand,” the nation’s financial leaders responded with pointed economic stimulus designed to match the crisis in both size and scope. In response to the crisis, Congress, together with the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and numerous other government agencies apportioned over $2 trillion in bank bailouts, tax cuts, and spending programs. This represented the largest amount of government spending America had ever seen. Considered strong and swift by some, and reckless by others, the stimulus was designed for widespread relief and met with an even wider range of public opinion. Now, with the worst of the crisis having passed and a less than certain future ahead, a review of some of the marquee financial programs of the largest government stimulus effort in the country’s history is in order.

Credit Markets Update
The economic crisis that we are currently in the midst of has commonly been referred to as a credit crisis or credit crunch. This is largely due to the fact that much of the rapid deterioration in economic conditions over the past two years was either directly caused by or greatly exacerbated by problems in the credit markets. This crisis, which began as a problem with subprime mortgages in early 2007, gradually spread throughout the credit markets, and eventually brought the global economy to its knees. The consensus among policymakers and economists alike is that the global economy will not be able to recover without a properly functioning credit market, and toward that end, the U.S. government has spent a significant amount of resources toward repairing the damaged credit markets of 2008.

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