What’s Next for the S&P 500?

December 05, 2013

This week’s chart illustrates the distribution of returns for the S&P 500 in the year following a return greater than 25%. Since 1926, the S&P 500 has produced a calendar year total return greater than 25% on 23 separate occasions. In the 12 months following, 15 observations or 65% of the time, the returns were positive (average return of +21.3%). Conversely, 8 observations or 35% of the time the results were negative (average return of -8.8%). Interestingly, since 1950 there have been 15 calendar years of +25% returns, yet only 3 (20%) of the following calendar years were negative. Many investors are calling for a market correction in 2014; however, a majority of the time returns have been positive and have averaged 10.9% following a calendar year return greater than 25% for the S&P 500.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

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