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Inflation- Expectations Matter

Three-line chart showing the CPI and CPI forecasts. Chart subtitle: According to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, long-term inflation expectations are rising for the first time in decades. Chart visual description: Y-axis is labeled Year over Year % Change and ranges from 0% to +10%. X-axis shows dates ranging from September 2012 to September 2022, in six-month increments. Purple line represents CPI (monthly data); light grey represents SPF 5-Year CPI Forecast (quarterly data), and darker grey line represents SPF 10-Year CPI Forecast (quarterly data). Note that CPI is as of August 2022. Chart data description: Both the 5- and 10-year forecast lines generally hover just slightly above or below 2% until recently, with the 5-year line ticking up to 4% for September 2022 and the 10-year line to 3%. Actual CPI has been typically been less stable than forecasts, though rarely above either forecast. Since March 2021 however, CPI has climbed significantly, peaking in June of this year near 9% and as of August, just below that at 8%. Chart source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter 2022. End chart description.
Posted on September 29, 2022September 29, 2022 Full size 1911 × 1033

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Published inInflation: Expectations Matter

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