Topic Tags: Currency

Emerging Markets: A Crisis of Confidence

February 2014 Investment Perspectives

After a disappointing 2013 and a significant sell-off to begin 2014, many investors are questioning their ongoing allocations to emerging markets (“EM”). Since 2013, EM countries have consistently underperformed their developed market counterparts, with equities losing 8.8% and local currency debt declining 12.5%. This compares to the S&P 500 and the EAFE which have returned 27.2% and 20.1%, respectively, over the same time period.

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Examining International Market Returns for U.S. Investors

This week’s COW looks at the year-to-date returns of the major international markets (Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets) through September 25, 2013. This chart disaggregates the returns that U.S. investors have realized so far this year between the currency return and the local stock market performance

This week’s COW looks at the year-to-date returns of the major international markets (Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets) through September 25, 2013. This chart disaggregates the returns that U.S. investors have realized so far this year between the currency return and the local stock market performance. While the depreciation of the Yen has helped drive the Japanese stock market to levels not seen since the late 1980’s, U.S. investors have only partially benefitted from the strong Japanese equity returns because of the fall in the Yen relative to the U.S. dollar. Interestingly, weak emerging market currencies were a theme for most of 2013, but with the Fed’s recent decision not to start tapering their quantitative easing (QE) program in September, emerging market currencies and equities have rallied significantly, pulling the year-to-date U.S. investor return close to even.

Understanding Currency Overlay

As portfolios have expanded to include international investments, investors must be aware of the currency risk inherent in foreign assets. Currency overlay programs provide a mechanism to mitigate currency risk. This paper examines how currency overlay programs can be used to reduce the currency risk embedded in foreign denominated portfolio allocations.

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