Category: Newsletter

The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

This weekend’s clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC meeting launched an oil price war that saw prices plummet over 20% with oil now trading at approximately $35 per barrel. This is salt on the wound for the global markets as coronavirus cases roughly tripled last week in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of Asia outside of China. Somewhat predictably, the S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop yesterday (March 9th) since 2008, dropping 7.6%; this was the 19th largest drop in its history.

This newsletter updates investors on yesterday’s market turbulence and in particular provides a projected outlook for core bonds’ expected returns in 2020. While the path forward from yesterday is unknown, the analysis included should hopefully provide investors some guidance on potential paths and returns for the remainder of the year.

Read > The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

Last week was a painful one for the equity markets as fears about the coronavirus drove investors out of stocks and markets into correction territory. The following newsletter summarizes last week’s developments and provides specific commentary on what to watch for across the major asset classes that constitute investor portfolios.

Read > March 2: Coronavirus Update and Portfolio Guidance

As always, please reach out to your consultant or our research team for more details about any of the information presented in this update. For more Marquette coverage on coronavirus, reference our previous newsletter (January 28) and Chart of the Week posts (February 13, February 21, February 26).

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

Global markets have come under pressure as the number of coronavirus cases grows. Through January 27th, the S&P 500 is down 3% from its mid-January peak when the U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 1.85% to 1.61% over this same period, as bond spreads widened and the dollar strengthened.

This newsletter summarizes recent market activity and potential implications of the spread of coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China. For long-term investors, this outbreak is likely nothing but noise; however, future news about the coronavirus could impact markets in the short-term.

Download PDF > Will the Spread of Coronavirus Drive a Risk-Off Market?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2020 Market Preview

2019 was certainly a profitable year for investors as traditional and alternative asset classes delivered positive returns.  As we enter 2020, there are a litany of questions facing global markets ranging from the U.S. election to trade disputes to global monetary policy, all of which will undoubtedly influence investment returns. The following newsletters examine the primary asset classes we cover for our clients, with in-depth analysis of last year’s performance and more importantly, trends, themes, and projections to watch for in 2020.

We hope these materials can assist you and your committees as you plan for the coming year, and please feel free to reach out to any of us should you have further questions about the articles. We have also produced a 2020 Market Preview video if you would like to hear a high-level summary of the market previews. Here’s to another positive year from the markets in 2020!

U.S. Economy: Signs of Slowing?
by Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, Partner, Director of Research

Fixed Income: The New Roaring Twenties — Will It Be Different This Time?
by Ben Mohr, CFA, Director of Fixed Income

U.S. Equities: Climbing the Wall of Worry
by Robert Britenbach, CFA, CIPM Research Analyst, U.S. Equities

Non-U.S. Equities: Big Expectations, Little Wiggle Room
by David Hernandez, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Non-U.S. Equities
and Nicole Johnson-Barnes, CFA, Research Analyst

Real Estate: What Will Happen Next?
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Infrastructure: The Energy Revolution Is Driving the Future of Infrastructure
by Jeremy Zirin, CAIA, Senior Research Analyst, Real Assets

Hedge Funds: Rising Geopolitical Risks and a U.S. Election Could Lead to Tempered Expectations
by Joe McGuane, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Alternatives

Private Equity: As Asset Class Grows, Continues to Deliver for Investors
by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA, Director of Private Equity

Private Credit: An Asset Class Coming Into Its Own
by Brett Graffy, CAIA, Research Analyst

To read the above files in one combined document > 2020 Market Preview

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

The third quarter saw mixed results for financial markets. Economic fundamentals generally remain strong but signs of deterioration are starting to emerge. Unemployment currently hovers around 3.5%, and inflation is near the Fed’s target of 2%. However, 3Q GDP growth was under 2% (though the 1.9% figure exceeded the 1.7% estimate), and the PMI index has been below 50 since August (a reading under 50 is indicative of contraction in the manufacturing sector). Overall, the most important global trends we see are the following:

  • The U.S.-China trade conflict continues to weigh heavily on both countries as talks remain ongoing;
  • The Federal Reserve (“Fed”) reversed course by cutting interest rates and further cuts are still possible;
  • The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted briefly, which historically has signaled a recession over the subsequent 12–24 months;
  • Brexit negotiations were extended to January 31, 2020, therefore further perpetuating the uncertainty around the UK’s exit from the EU;
  • Negative interest rates continue to grow in prevalence around the world.

The impact of these shifting dynamics is explored further in this newsletter as we review third quarter performance and expectations going forward for each of the major asset classes.

Read > Third Quarter Review of Asset Allocation: Risks and Opportunities

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Attack on Saudi Oil and Market Implications

Over the weekend, half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production stopped due to a drone attack on the country’s major Saudi Aramco oil infrastructure which includes processing centers and oil fields. While a Yemeni militant group — the Houthi rebels — claimed responsibility for the attack, U.S. intelligence suspects Iran as the culprit.

This newsletter details the immediate developments and market implications of the attack, including a look at oil pricing and current supply, expectations for recovery, and potential effects on demand and geopolitical uncertainties.

Read > Attack on Saudi Oil and Market Implications

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

The Yield Curve Inverts: Time to Hunker Down?

This morning, the key range of the U.S. Treasury yield curve that is viewed as the bellwether of recessions — the 2-year versus the 10-year — inverted. The 10-year yield fell to 1.61%, below the 2-year’s 1.62%, as of the time of writing. The yield curve serves as a key indicator of market sentiment on future interest rates and therefore the future state of our economy. An upward sloping curve signifies a growing economy, while an inverted curve portends a contracting economy.

This newsletter details what investors should be aware of in light of the inversion, including the possibility of a recession, effects on the equity market, and other current events that may contribute to uncertainty and volatility.

Read > The Yield Curve Inverts: Time to Hunker Down?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina

On Sunday, August 11th, Argentina’s current president since 2015, Mauricio Macri, lost the Argentine presidential primary election by a much greater margin than expected. This development was a surprise to the markets that sent shockwaves through emerging markets asset classes. Macri’s loss seriously reduces his chances of reelection on October 27th, as this primary election was generally viewed as a referendum on Macri’s austerity measures and reforms. Macri is seeking reelection on a platform that commits to continued austerity if he were to be reelected.

In this newsletter, we explore the impact these developments have had on the markets, potential outcomes, and what to watch for going forward.

Read > Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Lower for Longer, or Negative Forever?

With Trump’s surprise announcement of additional tariffs at the beginning of this month — a day after the Fed’s rate cut — the yield curve continued its free fall and flattening that began in earnest at the beginning of 4Q18’s dislocation and the gradual heating-up of the tariff war. Sunday’s Argentine Presidential primary election surprise, where pro-free markets incumbent Macri lost to populist duo Fernandez/Kirchner by a wider than expected margin, further exacerbated that trend.

In this newsletter, we examine the driving forces behind this persistent yield curve decline and flattening and potential remedies to the “lower for longer” norm.

Read > Lower for Longer, or Negative Forever?

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Impact of China’s Currency Devaluation

In response to the latest round of tariffs announced last week and set to take effect September 1st, China devalued its currency on Monday. Predictably, this currency devaluation roiled markets with major equity indices plummeting 3% on Monday, with a slight recovery Tuesday as China walked back its devaluation intentions. However, Wednesday’s markets featured further volatility and lower bond yields as investors flocked to safety amidst the longer-term uncertainty created by this week’s news.

This newsletter examines the potential effects of China’s currency devaluation including an analysis of the impact on investments in both the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan using the previous two Chinese currency devaluations over the last five years.

Read > The Impact of China’s Currency Devaluation

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.