Category: Newsletter

The Impact of Trump’s Victory on Capital Markets

November 2016

To the surprise of pollsters, analysts, and much of the American public, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump trampled predictions by winning the presidential election in stunning fashion.

The long-term impact of Trump’s presidency on financial markets is impossible to predict at this point, given the amount of uncertainty around his expected policies. However, the short-term dynamics surrounding his election win are starting to emerge, and we share with you what we are seeing and hearing in the market in this newsletter.

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Supercharged Fixed Income: Direct Lending

October 2016

Direct lending is an established asset class that provides a total return to investors typically between that of high yield bonds and mezzanine debt. It is considered private credit because the assets in a direct lending portfolio are loans originated privately between the direct lending fund manager (acting as lender) and the borrowing company. Due to the private nature of direct lending, the asset class produces attractive risk-adjusted returns supported by reduced competition, lower volatility, and favorable negotiation leverage for the direct lender. Since the financial crisis of 2008, direct lending as an asset class has featured unprecedented growth in deal volume as well as assets under management. This growth is attributed largely to post-crisis regulations that effectively forced banks, the traditional direct lenders of the past, to shed their direct lending operations. Non-bank direct lending asset managers have in turn benefitted from the significant rise in direct lending opportunities.

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A Broad Overview of 529 Plans and the Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) Act

September 2016

While 529 plans have existed for over two decades, recent developments such as the Achieving a Better Life Experience (“ABLE”) Act have provided a new avenue for families with eligible disabled dependents to build a pool of assets that cover qualified disability expenses such as education, housing, and transportation. Like 529 plans, 529 ABLE (“529A”) plans provide a tax advantaged investment vehicle for eligible participants.

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New GICS Real Estate Sector

September 2016

S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI Inc. have announced the creation of a new real estate sector within the Global Industry Classification (GICS) system. Effective market close August 31, 2016, real estate officially became its own GICS sector, whereas it was formerly included within the financial sector. MSCI implemented this new classification change as of this date, but S&P Dow Jones indices will not see this change made until their quarterly index rebalance date of September 16th. Russell indices will not be affected since they utilize a separate classification system from GICS.

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BREXIT: The Results and What’s Next

June 2016

On June 23rd, the United Kingdom (UK) shocked markets with its vote to leave the European Union (EU). The Remain vote lost to the Leave vote, 48.1% to 51.9%, with a strong turnout throughout the UK. Younger voters sided with the Remain camp by a wide margin, while older voters supported the Leave camp (Exhibit 2). In the weeks leading up to the referendum, global equity/credit markets and the British pound experienced positive price movement in anticipation of a Remain verdict. Using polling information and odds makers as indicators, investors were caught off guard at the Brexit result, leading to dramatic losses for risk assets on June 24th.

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Is the High Yield Market Expecting a Rise in Defaults?

May 2016

Given the depressed oil prices earlier in the year coupled with the recent credit rally, we have gotten many questions from clients about the future direction of default rates, particularly for high yield bonds. In early February, the question was about how high default rates would rise as a result of low oil prices and their subsequent impact on high yield issuers, particularly those in the energy sector. Now, as credit has rallied, investors are wondering if expected default rates are too pessimistic in light of the rally and rise in oil prices. This newsletter contemplates the current implied default rate for high yield bonds and how successfully it has predicted actual default rates, all in an effort to further examine the state of the high yield market. Ultimately, the goal is to provide our clients with guidance on how current conditions in the market could impact their portfolios over both short and long term investment horizons.

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Is Now the Time to Buy Emerging Market Equities?

March 2016

Over the last five years, emerging market (“EM”) equities have struggled to keep up with their developed market (“DM”) counterparts. Losses were extended into 2015, when this asset class lost 14.9%. Given the poor performance, it is not surprising that emerging market equities currently offer the most attractive valuations. The S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE trade at roughly 7–10% above their ten-year averages while the MSCI EM index trades 17% below. Given these valuations, when should investors expect a pick-up in performance?

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Secure Choice: The Next Chapter in the U.S. Defined Contribution Story

February 2016

In this latest Marquette Defined Contribution paper, we build on the similar themes of governance and evolving best practices by emphasizing that positive challenges lie ahead for trusted stewards of defined contribution plan assets; particularly, as defined contribution assets continue to grow, new types of DC plans emerge, best practices evolve, and an increasingly diverse population is gaining access to defined contribution plans. Consequently, those of us that are entrusted as fiduciaries have an opportunity to place segments of our country’s workforce on a steadier path towards retirement readiness.

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