Category: Newsletter

Rate Hike Underway

December 2015 Investment Perspectives

At its December 16th FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point hike to the Federal Funds Rate, which sets broad market short-term interest rates. This move effectively ends the long-standing Zero Interest Rate Policy (“ZIRP”) that has been in place since 2008. In addition to signaling that future rate hikes will remain gradual and data-dependent, the Fed provided guidance of a targeted additional 100 basis point raise throughout 2016.

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High Yield: Where Do We Go From Here?

December 2015 Investment Perspectives

The recent sell-off in the high yield markets caught many investors by surprise, and has emerged as a primary concern as the year comes to an end. Given the magnitude of the sell-off, it is fair to ask if more bad news is to come from the high yield market and if investors should reduce their allocations to the asset class before year-end. The following newsletter examines the recent market drop and offers perspective on future prospects for the asset class as well as considerations for investors with allocations to high yield.

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How to Position Fixed Income Portfolios for the Rate Hike

October 2015 Investment Perspectives

Much has been written and discussed in the media about when the rate hike will begin and the pace at which it will occur. Ultimately, the timing and pace are difficult to predict because they depend on many moving parts, including unemployment, inflation, and a host of unpredictable economic and political factors. The right question to ask is: How should an institutional investor position a fixed income portfolio for the rate hike, regardless of the associated timing and speed?

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U.S. Equity Market Update

August 2015 Investment Perspectives

Over the last week, the U.S. equity market – as represented by the S&P 500 Index – declined 11% between August 17th and 25th. The pace and magnitude of the market drop have come as a shock to many and left investors pondering how they should react to this swift downdraft. The following article is intended to provide some perspective on the recent volatility as well as some guidance for our clients on how to respond to the recent sell-off.

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Creating Social Impact Through Responsible Investing

August 2015 Investment Perspectives

A growing population of socially conscious investors has energized socially responsible investment (SRI) strategies in the past decade. The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment defines SRI as the process of integrating personal values and societal concerns into investment decision making. SRI has increased in the U.S. from $639 million in 1995 to $6.6 trillion in 2014. These assets account for roughly 17% of total dollars under management in the U.S.

This newsletter outlines a brief history of SRI, approaches to implementing an SRI program including positive and negative screening and shareholder activism; impact investing; example products and solutions in equities, fixed income, and real estate; investor concerns around performance and fiduciary liability, and considerations for implementing a sustainable investing program.

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The Greek Debt Drama and Guidance for Investors

July 2015 Investment Perspectives

With a history rich in theatre, Greece’s starring role in the “Grexit” drama has featured several rounds of inconclusive negotiations, the resignation of a finance minister, the closing of Greek banks, and a missed payment to the IMF. Finally, on July 13, Greece and its creditors reached an agreement on a third rescue package that likely ensures that Greece remains in the Eurozone. Key pension and tax reforms constitute some of the key austerity measures while Greek officials promised to set up a privatized fund by selling $50 billion in state owned assets. The funds will be devoted to the recapitalization of banks as well as debt servicing.

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The State of Real Estate: Is the Run Over?

April 2015 Investment Perspectives

Core real estate investments have done well over the past several years, with the benchmark NFI-ODCE returning 12.5% in 2014, its fifth consecutive yearly gain since the real estate recovery began in 2010. Investors may be wondering if this run can continue, or if it is time to pull back on their allocations to real estate. In this newsletter, we address these questions by examining critical drivers of the real estate market, such as performance, valuation, leverage, debt profiles, income, and capital flows.

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3Q15 Rate Hike and Yield Curve Flattening Expected – Marquette Associates Survey

February 2015 Investment Perspectives

Consensus among market prognosticators is that the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will raise interest rates this year. However, there is less agreement about when rates will start to rise, as well as how the shape of the yield curve will shift as rates start to ascend. To gain a better sense of when the rate hike can be expected to begin as well as how the shape of the yield curve is expected to change, we surveyed 41 fixed income investment management firms, large and small, for their best estimates based on the current market environment. In addition, we collected responses on when to expect a major credit spread widening, i.e., when we should expect major defaults from corporate bond issuers given the re-leveraging that has taken place over the last eight quarters. We also obtained from the respondents their expectation as to which region of the world might provide the best fixed income returns in 2015.

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2015 Market Preview

January 2015

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2015 is no different: U.S. equities are at all-time highs, uncertainty reigns for international equities, and to everyone’s surprise, interest rates fell dramatically in 2014…but are poised to rise from historic lows over the next year. In the alternative space, real estate remains a solid contributor to portfolio returns, and private equity delivered on return expectations, though dry powder is on the rise. Hedge fund results were mixed, but have shown to add value in past rising interest rate environments. Further macroeconomic items that bear watching for their potential impact on capital markets include the precipitous fall in oil prices, the strengthening U.S. dollar, job growth, and international conflicts.

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Real Assets: The State of Commodities

December 2014 Investment Perspectives

Commodity market investors received a ray of hope in the early months of 2014. After several years of consecutive declines, commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, began the year on strong footing and posted a gain of 7.1% in the first half of the year. By the end of the third quarter, however, commodities entered negative territory, and the year-to-date return through November for the Bloomberg Commodity Index had fallen to -10.2% (Exhibit 1). In this newsletter, we examine the recent developments in the commodity markets and evaluate their prospects for the coming quarters.

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