A Stock Picker’s Market?

So far, 2014 has seen a number of things fall: unemployment, interest rates, the pace of QE3, and correlations among U.S. equities. It is conventional wisdom that in times of crisis, correlations move to one and all equities fall in unison. Since 2008 when the correlations between sectors in the S&P 500 did indeed approach one, active equity managers have bemoaned the lack of dispersion that is commonly present in the U.S. equity market.

So far, 2014 has seen a number of things fall: unemployment, interest rates, the pace of QE3, and correlations among U.S. equities. It is conventional wisdom that in times of crisis, correlations move to one and all equities fall in unison. Since 2008 when the correlations between sectors in the S&P 500 did indeed approach one, active equity managers have bemoaned the lack of dispersion that is commonly present in the U.S. equity market. When dispersion is low and correlations are high, it is difficult for active managers to outperform a benchmark. During periods of high correlation, the market reacts to macro-type factors, punishing or rewarding all equities at once with little regard to stock specific fundamentals.

In 2014 however, correlations have once again begun to exhibit a downward trend, allowing active managers more opportunities to separate themselves from a benchmark. As measured by rolling 21-trading day windows, average correlations between the 10 sectors of the S&P 500 and the index itself reached a low of 63% in May, a level not seen since late 2010. If the trend of lower correlations continues throughout the year, expect greater dispersion between individual equities to be closely followed by greater dispersion between active managers and their benchmarks.

Active Share: An Increasingly Relevant Measure

The popularity of passive or indexed investment strategies is as high as ever due to low costs, strong recent performance, and compelling research by the likes of Eugene Fama indicating active management is a losing endeavor in aggregate. Nevertheless, as more assets move to passive strategies from active, skillful active management becomes more attractive assuming market pricing is not perfectly efficient

The popularity of passive or indexed investment strategies is as high as ever due to low costs, strong recent performance, and compelling research by the likes of Eugene Fama indicating active management is a losing endeavor in aggregate. Nevertheless, as more assets move to passive strategies from active, skillful active management becomes more attractive assuming market pricing is not perfectly efficient.

While the average active manager underperforms the market after fees, there are both successful and unsuccessful managers within the herd. The above table includes a sample of the results from a research study titled “Active Share and Mutual Fund Performance” by former Yale and NYU professor Antti Petajisto. The results of the study indicate that a specific subset of active mutual fund managers, specifically those with high Active Share, have exhibited persistent relative outperformance on a net-of-fees basis.

Active Share is a measure of how different a portfolio’s positions are from those of the passive index. The results of Petajisto’s study suggest that, on average, managers with high Active Share (i.e., Concentrated or Stock Picker type) outperform active managers with low to moderate Active Share. In fact, managers with both high Active Share and lower portfolio turnover actually outperformed the passive index net-of-fees by an average of 1.26% per annum with only slightly higher than average tracking error. A reasonable interpretation is that managers can be successful if they take active positions in strong companies and maintain conviction over time in those investments, avoiding excessive turnover. Meanwhile, managers with the lowest Active Share, termed Closet Indexers, persistently underperformed despite having the lowest fees and greatest diversification. This is unsurprising because these managers act mostly like the index but still charge fees reflective of active management. It is notable that large-cap stock strategies are more commonly closet indexers than small-cap strategies, and funds with too many assets under management have operational inability to take high active share.

In summary, there is a place in many portfolios for both active and passive management. The data does not indicate that all managers with high Active Share will outperform. Nevertheless, evaluating a manager’s Active Share in combination with other qualitative and quantitative factors can be very useful. Through due diligence, an independent investment consultant can help investors distinguish active managers who are more likely to exhibit talent and conviction. More importantly, if investors in so-called closet index funds were to move 60% of their money to a high Active Share manager and 40% of their money to a passive strategy, they could achieve the same level of Active Share while decreasing fees and increasing expected alpha. Take caution though: only patient investors who are comfortable with short-term tracking error can expect to realize the benefits of Active Share strategies, a virtue not exhibited by all.

Investment Manager Search 2013: Fiduciary Duty Deep Dive

Live webinar on the investment manager search fiduciary duties of high alpha, high integrity and low fees. An update of our popular manager search webinar in 2011, we’ll dive even deeper into the details of a five-step best practice process with traditional and alternative manager case studies. 

Thorough manager due diligence and fee negotiation are critical to avoiding poor products and performance erosion.

Register now to join us for a live webinar on the investment manager search fiduciary duties of high alpha, high integrity and low fees. An update of our popular manager search webinar in 2011, we’ll dive even deeper into the details of a five-step best practice process with traditional and alternative manager case studies. Clear guidance for both clients and managers will also be covered, including “do’s and don’ts” for approaching our research process.

 



Live Webinar – Tuesday, June 18, 2013 – 1:00-1:45 PM CT

Follow @MarquetteView for live webinar highlights
Questions taken via webinar or using hashtag #IMS2013

Featuring: Kelli Schrade, CAIA, Managing Partner and Director of Manager Research; Elizabeth Francis, CIMA®, Senior Research Analyst, Vice President

Who should attend: Institutional investment stewards, investment managers

Please contact us for access to this video.

In Search of Opportunity for Active U.S. Equity Managers

This paper seeks to determine if there are areas of public equity markets that are “less efficient” and thus potentially conducive to active investing. Without taking a stance on the active versus passive debate, this paper asks, “if you plan to hire an active manager, what is the best place to start looking?”

As we highlighted in a recent newsletter (Passive Strategies Gaining in Popularity), institutional investors continue to shift their U.S. equity allocations away from actively managed strategies and into index funds. The support for this shift has been proven by academic research as well as recent investment experience. This paper does not question the validity of passive investing approaches. Accepting that it is difficult at best to beat a market that is relatively efficient, this paper nonetheless seeks to determine if there are areas of public equity markets that are “less efficient” and thus potentially conducive to active investing. Without taking a stance on the active versus passive debate, this paper asks, “if you plan to hire an active manager, what is the best place to start looking?” The following paper is broken up into multiple sections. First, the workhorse of active equity manager evaluation, Fama-French factor analysis, is introduced. Next, active managers with different size and style biases are examined to search for pockets of alpha. Finally, additional thoughts and conclusions are provided for investors.

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Passive Strategies Gaining in Popularity

March 2013 Investment Perspectives

Index-based investment strategies, those that passively invest with the goal of replicating the return pattern of a specific benchmark, were first created and marketed to investors beginning in the early 1970s. The well-known financial concept known as Efficient Market Hypothesis was developed earlier in the 1960s and postulated that it was not possible for an investor to consistently beat market returns on a risk-adjusted basis over time since market prices incorporate all available information. The adoption of this hypothesis by the finance community certainly contributed to the proliferation and validation of passive strategies.

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Global Bonds Position Paper

Over the last several years institutional investors have adjusted their fixed income portfolios to include significant allocations to global bonds. This trend represents a regime shift from prior years when bond portfolios were mostly concentrated on U.S. issuers. However, as the trend has gained momentum, so has the need to truly understand global bonds and how they can impact a portfolio. In this paper, we outline our position on investing in global bonds from the perspective of a U.S.-based investor.

The following paper examines global equity as an asset class, focusing on justifications and concerns for investing globally rather than via a traditional partitioned U.S. and non-U.S.
approach. Furthermore, relative performance, risks, and meaningful outperformance from active management are also considered. Ultimately, this paper strives to investigate the theoretical reasons for global investing and whether these same arguments hold true in reality.

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Investment Manager Search Stewardship

Live webinar to discuss a best practice approach to fulfilling your fiduciary duty to meet the investment manager search stewardship “Big 3” – high alpha, high integrity and low fees.

Many institutional investment programs suffered major losses during the 2008-2009 financial crisis due to poor products and even outright fraud. Lack of a disciplined investment manager search due diligence process was almost always the root cause.

Register now to join us for a live webinar to discuss a best practice approach to fulfilling your fiduciary duty to meet the investment manager search stewardship “Big 3” – high alpha, high integrity, and low fees.

Continuing the conversation from our last webinar, Investment Stewardship 2011: Fiduciary Duty in An Uncertain Decade, we’ll dive deeper into two key fiduciary responsibilities that lead to high alpha, high integrity, and low fees:

  • Quality control – Get to know managers with thorough due diligence steps to avoid fraud and poor products. We’ll review a five-step process for fulfilling your manager search fiduciary duty in detail.
  • Cost control – Keep costs from eroding performance by actively negotiating so-called “industry standard” fees. We’ll review a case study where the institution realized significant cost savings through fee analyses and aggressive negotiation.

 


Live Webinar – Friday, July 22, 2011 – 1:00 PM CT
Investment Manager Search Stewardship
The Fiduciary Duty of High Alpha, High Integrity & Low Fees

Who should attend: Institutional investment stewards, investment managers

Please contact us for access to this video.