Topic Tags: Fixed Income - Below Investment Grade

Flirting With a Bear Market: How Did We Get Here, and What Comes Next?

Quite simply, this has been the worst start to a year since the 1930s:

  • One of only 19 quarters since 1976 when both bonds and stocks posted negative returns;
  • One of only six of those quarters when bonds have underperformed stocks;
  • The worst four-month return for the S&P 500 since 1939.

2022 to date has featured a myriad of macroeconomic factors coming to a head: inflation at its highest level since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve responding with aggressive rate hikes, and increasing concerns about the health of the consumer leading to a possible recession. An evolving pandemic, a war in Eastern Europe, and draconian lockdown policies in the world’s second-largest economy and largest manufacturing hub have further added to the problem and complicated the solution. With these macro headwinds and uncertainties driving markets year-to-date, Marquette’s fixed income, U.S. equities, and non-U.S. equities teams discuss the impacts on their asset classes and weigh in on the outlook from here.

Read > Flirting With a Bear Market: How Did We Get Here and What Comes Next?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q1 2022 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the first quarter’s performance by Marquette’s research team, reviewing general themes from the quarter and risks and opportunities to monitor in the coming months.

 Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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2022 Market Preview Video

This video coincides with our 2022 Market Preview letter from Director of Research Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA and provides analysis of last year’s performance as well as trends, themes, opportunities, and risks to watch for in 2022.

Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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In Search of Lost Yield

The fixed income space faces several significant challenges in 2022. First, the ability of many bond strategies to generate viable income streams is limited by interest rates that remain at historic lows. Additionally, elevated levels of inflation, which may remain above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2.5% throughout the year, will serve to dilute real returns. To that point, the 5-year breakeven rate, a measure of expected near-term inflation in the U.S., ended last year at 2.9% after reaching a level of 3.2% just a few weeks prior, which represents a record high for the metric since Bloomberg began tracking it in 2002. As displayed in this week’s chart, Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and high yield municipal bonds exhibited flat-to-negative inflation-adjusted yields at the end of 2021. Finally, many expect rates to rise this year as the Fed curtails stimulus programs and begins to implement increasingly restrictive monetary policy to combat the rise in price levels. The current landscape begs the question: What can fixed income investors do going forward?

In the coming years, traditional bond investors may need to focus on a wider variety of sectors within the asset class to attain desired yields. Specifically, preferred securities, emerging market debt (EMD), high yield bonds, and senior loans all offer yields that are in excess of the 5-year breakeven rate, even when adjusting for duration. Bank loans may be particularly attractive going forward, as these instruments typically offer floating interest rates that protect investors from increases in short-term yields. Of course, the risks of each of these spaces should be thoroughly considered before any allocation changes are implemented. The EMD space, for example, carries with it significant currency risk, while preferreds exhibit credit risk and are subordinated in the capital structure, providing investors with a lower claim on assets than more senior debt. While all of these sectors are not uncommonly featured in investment portfolios, market participants should investigate the merits and drawbacks of each before creating or modifying target allocations, with a specific focus on duration, credit spread sensitivities, and liquidity terms.

Print PDF > In Search of Lost Yield

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Credit Spreads Snap Back from Initial Omicron Surge

Given the positive news on the weakness of the Omicron variant and its susceptibility to at least some of the COVID-19 vaccines, credit spreads have generally retraced their widening since the first Omicron case in South Africa was reported to the World Health Organization on November 24th, 2021. Our chart this week compares high-yield spreads against two averages using the Bloomberg High Yield index. The lower dotted line is the average spread for the year-to-date period, with current spreads sitting just above of this figure. The higher dotted line is the since-inception average spread (excluding the extreme periods of 2008 and 2009), with today’s spreads still generally extremely tight compared to this long-term average despite the recent Omicron scare. While we assess only U.S. high yield corporate spreads, these are generally representative for investment grade bonds, bank loans, and emerging markets debt as well.

Omicron has quickly spread to at least 57 countries around the world thus far, but spreads tightened across the board last week as President Biden chose to institute stricter COVID-19 testing requirements for travelers entering the U.S. from abroad instead of implementing more lockdowns and broad mask mandates. Additionally, Moderna and Pfizer have been mobilizing to update their vaccines against the Omicron variant. However, the tail end of last week brought with it some widening pressure as Europe tightened its COVID-19 restrictions and the Consumer Price Index saw a 6.8% increase for the month of November on a year-over-year basis, topping the previous month’s 6.2%. This figure raised some concern that the Federal Reserve may accelerate its tapering and rate hike schedule.

Last week, the fully vaccinated rate remained at 60% for the U.S. and rose one point to 45% for the world. With still a long runway to go before herd immunity levels of 80% are reached, and since issuers remain risk-averse as evidenced by benign fundamentals ranging from generally low leverage to use of loan and bond issuance proceeds directed towards refinancings rather than LBOs, we may expect spreads to potentially tighten further. It is worth noting that this tightening may not be without potential dislocations along the way. As of this writing, spreads are very near all-time tights. Marquette will continue to monitor fixed income valuations, fundamentals, and technicals as we progress through the recovery from the pandemic.

Print PDF > Credit Spreads Snap Back from Initial Omicron Surge

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

In Context Video: Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead Forever?

In this video, the authors of our recent white paper discuss the 60/40 model portfolio — a long-time approach to portfolio construction that generally consists of a 60% allocation to equities and a 40% allocation to fixed income. From the decades of success the 60/40 portfolio has experienced (and why) to skepticism about its future viability in light of the current low interest rate and expensive equity market environment and how organizations may still be able to meet their return targets, we seek to answer if the 60/40 portfolio’s efficiency is a thing of the past.

Marquette’s In Context series brings our latest research to your screen, with discussion led by the authors behind Marquette’s papers and newsletters. From current events and trends to portfolio strategy and the broader economic landscape, we explore the questions investors are asking with consideration and the context you need to know.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Marquette is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Marquette including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.

The Holiday Party Guest List

Though the leaves have only started to change color, holiday party planning is in full swing. And while ample food and drink are necessary inputs for any type of holiday celebration, it’s the guests who ultimately make the party…or break it. In a way, this dynamic isn’t all that different from the markets — at any given time, the prevailing economic and market conditions will dictate investor returns. Given this analogy, we thought it could be fun to take a survey of the “attendees” in the current market environment and see if we can draw a connection with real-life examples along with what each guest means to the success of the party…and investor. Oh, and one caveat as we go — similar to actual party planning, sometimes we don’t want to invite someone, but we have to invite this person; circling back to the financial markets, we can’t control what forces exist in the markets, but we will do our best to determine those that will be merry and those that will not. Confused? Don’t worry, I am too, but we’ll figure this as we go through the invite list.

Highlights from this edition:

  • The Delta variant’s impact
  • Consumer spending
  • The credit and equity markets
  • The coming Federal Reserve taper
  • Earnings peak for equities
  • Labor market shortages
  • Commodity returns
  • Inflation concerns
  • The Evergrande debt crisis

Read > The Holiday Party Guest List

Watch our Q3 2021 Market Insights Video for an in-depth analysis of the third quarter’s performance by Marquette’s research team.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Q3 2021 Market Insights Video

This video features an in-depth analysis of the third quarter’s performance by Marquette’s research team, reviewing general themes from the quarter and risks and opportunities to monitor through the end of the year. Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

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For more information, questions, or feedback, please send us an email.

Commodities: The Full Story

The first three quarters of 2021 have seen positive performance from a variety of asset classes ranging from U.S. and international equities to bank loans, which have exhibited returns close to their 10-year averages. However, one segment of the market that has experienced strong, aberrational performance on a year-to-date basis is commodities. Through the end of September, the S&P GSCI, a broad-based index that includes futures contracts on physical commodities, has returned 38.3% since the beginning of the year, far in excess of its long-term average. Recent performance for the asset class has largely been driven by surging demand for raw materials amid economic reopenings, coupled with pandemic-fueled supply chain dislocations, which caused the prices of many commodities to skyrocket. For instance, both lumber and copper experienced all-time highs during the first half of 2021, while agricultural commodity prices reached a 7-year peak earlier in the year as a result of strong demand for meat. Oil consumption also hit a seasonally adjusted high in July of 2021, which led to a 50% increase in the price of crude futures from the year prior. As the global economy continues to reopen, labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, and strong demand for raw materials will likely persist, meaning that positive performance from commodities may continue into 2022.

As investors assess the prospects of the commodities space going forward, it is important to keep historical context in mind. To that point, our chart this week examines both the 10-year annualized returns and standard deviations for eleven different asset classes to better understand the long-term performance profiles of each one. As displayed in the chart, the real estate space, as measured by the NCREIF index, has posted strong returns in the last decade as well as a low standard deviation (though the illiquid nature of the asset class may lead to some volatility smoothing). Equities have tended to exhibit higher levels of return and standard deviation than fixed income, while Small Cap indices have notched both higher returns and volatility than their larger peers across the geography spectrum. Interestingly, each of the asset classes profiled in the chart has yielded positive performance in the last 10 years with the exception of one: commodities. For the 10-year period ending September 30th, 2021, the S&P GSCI posted an annualized return of -4.8%. Additionally, the index has experienced an annualized standard deviation of 21.4% during that same period, which is again the most extreme of any of the asset classes in the chart above. Put simply, commodities have exhibited both the lowest returns and highest levels of risk of any major asset class in the last 10 years. As investors assess recent strong performance from the space and look to the future, it is crucial to avoid recency bias and keep history in mind. Prudence dictates a diversified approach to asset allocation in order to hedge uncertainty and achieve optimal risk-adjusted returns.

Print PDF > Commodities: The Full Story

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Have Things Been Too Quiet?

Although this is only the second iteration of my quarterly letter series, Marquette has always produced quarterly market narratives in one shape or another. And in almost all cases, it has been relatively straightforward to formulate a narrative that stitches together the primary headlines from the prior three months. But as I sit here today, things seem quiet…too quiet, almost. Of course, it is the first summer after a crippling global pandemic that shuttered the economy and constrained us almost exclusively to our homes for the better part of the year. Summer is in full swing and the images of crowded beaches overlaid with higher prices for airline tickets and hotel stays illustrate that people are getting back to their pre-pandemic lifestyles, both socially and economically. Anecdotally, my email volume slowed over the last quarter as well; whether this is pure coincidence or a function of markets generally behaving in conjunction with economic re-openings and summer vacations remains to be seen.

Nonetheless, the purpose of this letter series is to track the pulse of the financial markets and let our readers know what we’re thinking about (worrying about?) when looking at the overall financial market landscape. Given that objective, the following outlines several market factors that we believe bear monitoring as the remainder of the year plays out.

Highlights from this edition:

  • Market volatility and reversion to the mean
  • COVID-19: new uncertainty with the Delta variant, vaccination progress
  • Interest rate expectations
  • Inflation following a crisis
  • Valuations: signals from the credit and equity markets

Read > Have Things Been Too Quiet?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.