2016 Market Preview

January 2016

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2016 is off to a volatile start with equity markets down significantly, oil dropping below $30, the Fed poised to further increase interest rates, and fears of a China slowdown rippling through the markets. However, other headlines will emerge as the year goes on, and it is critical to understand how asset classes will react to each new development and what such reactions will mean to investors. The following articles contain insightful analysis and key themes to monitor over the coming year, themes which will underlie the actual performance of the asset classes covered.

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2015 Market Preview

January 2015

Similar to previous years, we offer our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2015 is no different: U.S. equities are at all-time highs, uncertainty reigns for international equities, and to everyone’s surprise, interest rates fell dramatically in 2014…but are poised to rise from historic lows over the next year. In the alternative space, real estate remains a solid contributor to portfolio returns, and private equity delivered on return expectations, though dry powder is on the rise. Hedge fund results were mixed, but have shown to add value in past rising interest rate environments. Further macroeconomic items that bear watching for their potential impact on capital markets include the precipitous fall in oil prices, the strengthening U.S. dollar, job growth, and international conflicts.

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Growth of Liquid Alternatives

This week’s chart looks at the recent fund flows and the trailing twelve month (“TTM”) percentage growth rate of liquid alternatives as of March 31, 2014. Over the past decade, private investment managers, traditionally associated with less liquid investments such as hedge funds, private equity, and real estate, have expanded their investment focus towards the creation of liquid alternative products that comply with the 1940 Investment Company Act in order to meet the demands of the rapidly growing defined contribution market.

This week’s chart looks at the recent fund flows and the trailing twelve-month (“TTM”) percentage growth rate of liquid alternatives as of March 31, 2014. Over the past decade, private investment managers, traditionally associated with less liquid investments such as hedge funds, private equity, and real estate, have expanded their investment focus towards the creation of liquid alternative products that comply with the 1940 Investment Company Act in order to meet the demands of the rapidly growing defined contribution market.

Within the open-ended mutual fund universe, liquid alternatives have once again topped all other asset classes with the highest organic growth rate over the TTM period, up 39.5% as of March 31, 2014. Although this growth rate is impressive, liquid alternative assets only represent 1.3% ($149B) of the U.S. mutual fund universe, which has over $11 trillion in assets.

As the trend toward liquid alternatives continues to grow, investors should consider the potential implications and effectiveness of the newly designed strategies. ’40 Act funds must comply with restrictions not required by traditional hedge funds such as leverage limits, short-selling, and liquidity. In addition, the standard 1.5% and 20% hedge fund fee structure has to be adjusted within the ’40 Act universe; currently, the average management fee for liquid alternative funds is around 1.5%. Since the significant rise in the formation of liquid alternative products has taken off within the past few years, investors should be cautious before diving into the space as the next decade will be a testing ground for these strategies as to whether or not they deliver on their performance expectations, in terms of both return and diversification.

Price Recovery in Secondary Market for Private Equity

This week’s chart looks at median secondary market pricing for private equity fund interests. Because private equity is an illiquid asset class, investors that have private equity portfolios and need immediate liquidity must sell their interests in existing private equity funds to other investors.

This week’s chart looks at median secondary market pricing for private equity fund interests. Because private equity is an illiquid asset class, investors that have private equity portfolios and need immediate liquidity must sell their interests in existing private equity funds to other investors. This is called the “secondary market”, which has grown substantially since the credit crisis; over $20 billion of fund interests traded hands in 2013 on the secondary market. The above chart shows that in the immediate aftermath of the credit crisis, during 2009, buyers required a steep discount to net asset values to assume the risks of existing fund interests. At the bottom of the market, during the second quarter of 2009, sellers received just $0.30 on the dollar if they decided to sell their private equity investments. However, as the crisis abated those steep discounts vanished. Pricing was particularly aggressive in 2013 with secondary buyers requiring only a 7–10% discount to net asset value. Given these modest discounts, it appears the opportunities in the private equity secondary market are scarce these days.

2014 Market Preview

January 2014

Similar to previous years, we present our annual market preview newsletter. Each year presents new challenges to our clients, and 2014 is no different: We are coming off a banner year for U.S. equities, low interest rates continue to stymie fixed income investors, and while developed market equities enjoyed a strong 2013, emerging market stocks sputtered. In the alternative space, real estate and hedge funds proved accretive to portfolio returns, while growing dry powder in the private equity space is starting to raise a few eyebrows.

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Emerging Trends in Alternative Asset Classes

2013 Marquette Investment Symposium session

In this presentation from our 2013 Investment Symposium, we explore various emerging trends in the alternatives space, including low volatility equity, tail risk, managed futures, gold, MLPs, GTAA, risk parity, farmland, direct lending, and opportunistic credit.


Investment Symposium 2013
Recorded September 13, 2013

Please contact us for access to this video.

Is the IPO Market Back?

As LinkedIn’s highly successful IPO commanded lofty valuations and headlines across the financial press, commentators began drawing parallels to the hot IPO market that preceded the tech collapse at the end of the last decade. Although it has likely been ten years since a new company listing has generated so much buzz, the state of the equity IPO market in the U.S. has a long way to go before reaching the levels seen in the late 1990’s.

As LinkedIn’s highly successful IPO commanded lofty valuations and headlines across the financial press, commentators began drawing parallels to the hot IPO market that preceded the tech collapse at the end of the last decade. Although it has likely been ten years since a new company listing has generated so much buzz, the state of the equity IPO market in the U.S. has a long way to go before reaching the levels seen in the late 1990’s. Through the end of May 2011, 95 new deals came to market raising aggregate proceeds of nearly $30 billion. With a backlog of companies expected to go public in the second half of the year, 2011 is projected to surpass the improved totals recorded in 2010. The offering market has seen a revival since 2008 when only 58 companies went public, but is still a long way from the types of numbers seen in 1999 when 549 companies listed raising over $90 billion.

Private Equity Position Paper

The first of a two part series, this paper provides an overview of the private equity asset class as well as recommendations and allocation guidance.

This paper is meant to provide an overview of the private equity asset class, an analysis of the qualitative and quantitative factors that should be used to assess private equity funds and determine their appropriate use in a portfolio, and lay-out and justify Marquette Associates’ position on the use of private equity funds in client portfolios. Recommendations as well as guidance towards making an allocation to the asset class are also included.

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