Projected Trends in Employment

January 10, 2013

This week’s Chart of the Week shows projected trends for non-agriculture employment in the U.S. by major industry sectors over the 2010-2020 timeframe. Every two years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates labor force trends over a 10-year period. BLS employment estimates are based on projected changes in both population growth and labor force participation rates within U.S. demographic groups.

Notable employment changes during this time include health care and social assistance (5.6 Mil), professional and business services (3.8 Mil), and construction (1.8 Mil). Nearly half of the projected job growth during 2010-2020 is expected to come from health care / social assistance and professional and business services. Despite strong projected growth in the construction industry, employment is not expected to reach pre-recession levels. Federal government employment is expected to lose approximately 370K jobs with nearly half of those reductions coming from the Postal Service.

The latest release, from February 2012, reflects key demographic changes taking place in the U.S. over the next 10 years. A slower rate of growth within the U.S. population, the continued aging of the baby-boom generation, and decreases in labor force participation rates are expected. These changes will have an effect on both the rate of growth within the U.S. economy as well as which industries will be the driving force of that growth.