Bull Market to Continue?

November 15, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), which consists of 10 economic variables, increased 0.7 percent from the previous month to 97.1 in September. The LEI attempts to predict future changes in the overall economy. Prior to the September release, economists estimated a median 0.6 percent increase according to a Bloomberg survey. The reported 97.1 September number represents the highest point since April 2008 (97.2).

Examining the historical data, two inflection points, which are circled in the chart, stand out the most. The first inflection point, the peak in April of 2000 (95.5), led to an additional 4.5% increase in the S&P 500 through August 2000. The second inflection point, March 2006 (107.9) led to the S&P 500 increasing by nearly 20% the following year ending in October of 2007. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the historical data from the LEI suggest that the market’s bull-run may continue as the economy continues its expansion, though at a modest rate.