Author: cvernon

Is the Sky Falling? An Early Analysis of the 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

The U.S. debt ceiling was initially established in 1917 as a limit on how much the federal government was allowed to borrow. At the time, the ceiling was enacted to simplify the borrowing process, but more recently, it has become a political tool that can threaten the stability of our economy and financial markets. Modifying the debt ceiling began as a routine act of Congress — there have been more than 100 changes to the debt limit since the end of World War II, with “clean” increases enacted under both Democratic and Republican leadership. Since 1980, however, increases to the debt ceiling have been increasingly intertwined with partisan spending and deficit reduction initiatives, with the eleventh-hour agreement in 2011 the most extreme example to date of how far parties are willing to go.

This newsletter places the 2023 debt ceiling crisis into historical context, analyzing what outcomes are likely from here and potential impacts on the government, markets, businesses, and consumers.

Read > Is the Sky Falling? An Early Analysis of the 2023 Debt Ceiling Crisis

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

2023 Market Preview: Trail Guide to 2023 Asset Class Performance

As winter takes hold in the northern hemisphere, there are those that choose to escape to warmer climates and those that embrace the season and choose the mountains. Anyone familiar with downhill skiing knows that every ski trail is marked with a shape and color to designate its difficulty. For those unfamiliar with these ratings, the North American system looks like this:


Of course, weather and trail conditions can also impact a trail’s difficulty and must be accounted for when turning down the mountain: environment and terrain matter. Similarly, investment prognostications must recognize the current setting. By now, the environment is all too well known: high inflation, aggressive Fed policy, Russia–Ukraine war, labor supply shortages, and a potential recession. These topics have been covered extensively in recent letters and continue to loom over markets as we start 2023. At a high level, general consensus is that the majority of rate hikes from the Fed are behind us (two are expected for 2023 at time of writing), and inflation will continue to normalize in 2023, thus further supporting the thesis of fewer rates hikes from the Fed over the next year. If a recession comes to fruition, expectations are for it to be short-lived and shallow which reduces the long-term threat to markets.

With this backdrop in mind, we turn our attention to an asset class by asset class outlook for the coming year, assessing the degree of difficulty for each to deliver positive returns in 2023. In some cases, the difficulty will change as the year goes on — similar to trails that are “Most Difficult” for the first half and become more palatable as the journey goes on…which brings to mind a certain trail in Utah that the author found himself on last year that literally had him over his skis…but I digress. Tighten your boots and click into those skis!

Read > Trail Guide to 2023 Asset Class Performance

Download > 2023 Market Preview Report with 100+ additional charts and data, organized by asset class

Watch >  2023 Market Preview Video recording of our research team’s live webinar analyzing last year’s performance as well as trends, themes, opportunities, and risks to watch for in 2023

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Marquette is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Marquette including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.

2023 Market Preview Video

This video is a recording of a live webinar held January 19 by Marquette’s research team, featuring in-depth analysis of the final months of 2022 and a look ahead at risks and opportunities to monitor in the year ahead. Our Market Insights series examines the primary asset classes we cover for clients including the U.S. economy, fixed income, U.S. and non-U.S. equities, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit, with presentations by our research analysts and directors.

Download > 2023 Market Preview Report with 100+ additional charts and data, organized by asset class

Read > 2023 Market Preview: Trail Guide to 2023 Asset Class Performance

 

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Things Are Looking Up: Good News for China

China has been a hot topic over the last year amid market-moving headlines and heightened stock market volatility. U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, zero-COVID policies, real estate market turmoil, and regulatory constraints have all weighed heavily on Chinese equities. Recently, however, things have been looking up. Chinese equities ended last week on a high note, continuing the significant rebound in performance since the end of October. The CSI 300, which tracks the top 300 stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, is close to bull market territory, up 19% since October 31. Chinese equities as a whole have staged an even more impressive rebound, up close to 55% during the same time frame.

Two major shifts in Chinese policy have contributed to this performance, with the first being the overhaul of strict zero-COVID policies. Beginning in December, Chinese authorities rolled back stringent guidelines by reducing testing and quarantine time for travelers, lessening isolation restrictions for COVID “close contacts”, and scrapping penalties for airlines that carried COVID cases into the country. The second shift is help for China’s struggling real estate sector. According to Bloomberg, close to 150 billion yuan ($24B USD) will be provided in relief in the first quarter to top developers. Additionally, mortgage rates and minimum down payments have been lowered, with the hope of increasing demand for real estate. Along with these shifts in policy, the dollar decline has only helped make Chinese equities more attractive.

Looking forward, despite the recent good news and market rally, Chinese markets are likely to remain volatile, with uncertainties and risks remaining. The reopening of the Chinese economy could add to global inflation pressures, COVID outbreaks have been on the rise in China, and the country has seen its greatest population decline since the 1960s. These dynamics present both risks and opportunities in the market this year and beyond, and developments will be key to emerging markets performance from here.

Print PDF > Things Are Looking Up: Good News for China

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Defined Contribution Plan Legislative Update – 1Q 2023

This legislative update covers the SECURE Act 2.0, part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 signed into law by President Biden on December 29, 2022. SECURE 2.0 is a follow-up law to the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (SECURE Act) and includes an array of changes that will impact employer retirement plans.

The text itself is quite lengthy (357 pages to be exact) so we have summarized a few of SECURE 2.0’s key provisions, broken down by effective date. While many provisions are already in effect, there is a grace period for compliance. For the 2023 effective date provisions, amendments to satisfy the new rules must be adopted by plans no later than the end of the 2025 plan year for nongovernmental plans, and the end of the 2027 plan year for governmental plans and collectively bargained plans. SECURE 2.0 also extends the plan amendment deadline for the SECURE Act, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (“CARES Act”), and the Taxpayer Certainty and Disaster Tax Relief Act of 2020 to align with the plan amendment deadlines noted above.

Read > 1Q 2023 DC Legislative Update

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Banks to Borrowers: Tighter, Tighter

If recent data points collected by the Federal Reserve are any indication, major financial institutions are bracing for a period of challenged economic activity. The latest edition of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices, which surveyed roughly 70 domestic banks and 20 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks, found that nearly 40% of these organizations have raised standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms over the last several months. According to the survey, these tighter conditions were most widely reported for costs of credit lines, premiums charged on risky loans, covenants, collateralization requirements, and spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds. It is important to note that these tighter conditions are not limited to C&I borrowers, as standards for commercial real estate and credit card loans, as well as home equity lines of credit, are back to levels last seen during the early days of COVID-19. Respondents cited reductions in risk tolerance, decreased secondary market liquidity for commercial and industrial loans, lower competition among lenders, and a less favorable economic outlook as the primary reasons for these higher lending standards.

In a special section of the most recent SLOOS, banks were asked to assess the probability and potential severity of a near-term economic downturn. Roughly 80% of respondents believe there is at least a 40% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. On a more positive note, none of the banks included in the survey believed the downturn would be severe, with roughly 75% of respondents indicating the recession would likely be moderate and 25% expecting it to be mild. For context, severe recessions have historically resulted in a 3.4% reduction in real GDP and an increase of 3.6% in the unemployment rate, according to Federal Reserve data. Mild and moderate recessions, on the other hand, have seen real GDP decline 0.6–1.1% and increases of 1.1–1.8% in the unemployment rate.

Whether or not these predictions ultimately come to fruition, Marquette recommends remaining invested throughout the economic cycle, as downturns can be notoriously difficult to time. Securities markets also tend to be forward-looking, so much of the pain associated with a possible future recession may already be reflected in the current landscape. As banks and other market participants continue to assess economic conditions, and as markets react, and overreact, to those changing expectations, it is important for investors to maintain diversification across asset classes and remain focused on long-term objectives.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Pitch Perfect, Slam Dunk?

Some of the key hallmarks of an attractive private equity deal include businesses with a loyal and diversified customer base, recession-resistant and diversified revenue streams, and observable, steady growth in historic asset values. While this may be a mission-critical software company, it may also be the English Premier League or the National Basketball Association. A growing consortium of private equity funds has begun to recognize the inherent value of professional sports and is increasingly purchasing stakes in leagues, teams, media rights, and related real estate. As of August, $6.2 billion had already been invested in 2022, with the full year on track to exceed 2021’s $6.3 billion. Much of this can be attributed to the swell of activity in European football leagues, with the Chelsea Football Club comprising nearly half of the 2022 year-to-date total.¹

From an investor’s perspective, professional sports franchises provide economic exposure to a diverse set of assets, low correlation to broader equity markets, and recurring and predictable revenue streams. The observable growth in asset value has also added to private equity’s interest in the segment. In the 20 years ended 2021, the average cumulative price return for professional sports team franchises in the NHL (+467%), the NFL (+558%), the MLB (+669%), and the NBA (+1,057%) all outpaced the S&P (+458%), according to Forbes, Sportico, and Pitchbook data. While valuations have risen with a limited number of franchises available to buy, the numbers reflect the attractive characteristics of the assets, such as broadcasting rights, streaming, and the opportunity to further monetize a dedicated fan base. While still in the early innings (or first quarter, half, or period), this is a sub-segment within private equity worth a keen eye as investment continues to grow.

Print PDF > Pitch Perfect, Slam Dunk

 

¹How private equity is moving into the big leagues, Buyouts Insider, October 2022.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Fueling Some Relief into the New Year

Last summer, gasoline prices retreating was one of the first bright spots at the macroeconomic level. Since then, CPI has generally followed suit, correcting from a peak of 9.1% year-over-year in June to 7.1% in November. Gasoline prices are broadly a product of global supply and demand, with many economic variables at play. As a notable component of the CPI basket, it is no surprise that the price of gasoline usually moves in line with inflation, however, historically, the correlation between the two has increased during times of economic turbulence. Correlations spiked during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the oil price shock in 2014, and again in 2020 when COVID hit and oil futures plunged into negative territory. Correlation remained high heading into 2023, with gasoline prices turning deflationary year-over-year. Inflation is expected to continue lower from here as the Fed prioritizes price stability via higher rates. While heightened macro uncertainty remains, and other factors including weather and refinery operations can impact prices for consumers at the pump, experts generally expect overall lower gasoline prices as well, with the EIA forecasting a 12% drop in the average price per gallon in 2023 from 2022. To the extent historically higher correlations hold, the consumer should continue to benefit from some relief when refueling.

Print PDF > Fueling Some Relief into the New Year

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Adventures in Venture: Navigating the Current VC Environment

After an incredibly strong run in venture capital, public market weakness is beginning to show through in the VC space, with comparisons to the dot-com era emerging. The venture capital ecosystem, however, remains steadfast in the opportunity set due to the advancement of technology and the dry powder available. As of September 30, 2022, global venture capital fundraising activity reached $224 billion, approaching the $265 billion raised in 2021 and not far off the record $298 billion raised in 2018.¹

Technology is almost synonymous with venture capital. Through the third quarter, technology made up 85% of the U.S. deal value in 2022. In the 2000s, the technology space was less developed than it is today. Venture technology investing was mostly in hardware and telecom. Today, the focus is largely on cloud-based software. The speed at which companies across sectors are adopting technology has increased, leading to a lot of white space for innovation. Furthering momentum, COVID-19 pulled forward adoption trends, pushing companies to embrace technology in new ways. Industries like banking, agriculture, and consumer goods, which have historically been more technology-resistant, were forced to pivot in order to survive. Estimates suggest the pandemic accelerated digital adoption trends in these mega industries by 5–10 years.

The amount of dry powder in venture capital today also gives the asset class some stability. Dry powder levels are hitting all-time highs — $585 billion as of March 31, 2022 — providing a buffer to ensure there is still capital available for startups in the coming years. Ongoing investment in VC companies allows innovators to continue innovating, even in times of market stress.

While there may be some similarities with the dot-com period, there are many differences that could support a quicker recovery than the industry saw then. While we cannot predict the future, we can remain disciplined in our due diligence and look to align our clients with the VC managers that should be best positioned to navigate the volatility.

Print PDF > The Adventures in Venture: Navigating the Current VC Environment

¹Pitchbook

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Four Virtues of Private Equity

In classical philosophy we are taught that there are four virtues of mind and character. Given the uncertainty that lies ahead in 2023, it is prudent (pun intended) to revert back to these virtues — as they relate to private equity — to outline a framework that may help investors effectively navigate the market.

  • Prudence: The ability to discern the appropriate course of action
  • Temperance: The practice of discretion, restraint, and moderation
  • Fortitude: strength, endurance, and the ability to confront fear
  • Justice: fairness

Read > The Four Virtues of Private Equity

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.