Author: cvernon

Deciphering the Bond Markets: How Much Duration and Credit Risk Should I Take?

2018 Investment Symposium flash talk by Ben Mohr, CFA

Given the current fixed income environment of rising rates and tight credit spreads, investors are questioning how much interest rate risk and credit risk they should hold in their portfolios. This session addresses the questions of how much duration (interest rate risk) and credit risk investors should take by examining current market conditions, anticipated changes, and an overall assessment of where we are in the credit cycle.

A summary of this flash talk can be downloaded here.

Getting “A” Share of the Chinese Market

2018 Investment Symposium flash talk by David Hernandez, CFA

This year, index provider MSCI began including China A-shares in the emerging markets equity index. While A-shares currently only constitute 0.8% of the benchmark, we expect that number to grow over time. In this flash talk, we will discuss what China A-shares are and how U.S. investors have traditionally accessed the Chinese market. We will review how A-shares are different from other Chinese investments, why institutional investors should take note of them and what the future may look like given their potential to impact institutional portfolios.

A summary of this flash talk can be downloaded here.

The Impact of Technological Innovation on the U.S. Equity Market and the Value-Growth Continuum

2018 Investment Symposium flash talk by Samantha T. Grant, CFA, CAIA

Since the 2008 financial crisis, investors have flocked to new and innovative growth stocks over more traditional and seemingly boring value stocks. This is not the first time investors have favored growth over value, and surely it will not be the last. In this session, we will discuss what makes the current growth cycle different from previous growth cycles, the companies at the forefront of the technology wave and what could cause the market to reverse course and favor value over growth.

A summary of this flash talk can be downloaded here.

Evolving Private Market Landscape: The Institutional Shift from Public to Private Markets

2018 Investment Symposium flash talk by Derek Schmidt, CFA, CAIA

Investors are adapting to an investment landscape altered by a 46% decline in the number of publicly traded companies and the emergence of less expensive passive investment opportunities. These changes have shifted record levels of capital into private equity as investors have pursued attractive investment opportunities in small companies. We will discuss how the private equity market has responded to increased investor demand and will attempt to identify where institutional allocations may be headed and where to find the best opportunities for returns within this increasingly diversified private market.

A summary of this flash talk can be downloaded here.

The Financial Crisis: A Decade Later

2018 Investment Symposium flash talk by Nat Kellogg, CFA

Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, we look back at the key factors that caused the crisis and reexamine the significant events of 2008. Now, a decade later, we will highlight the critical issues exposed by the crisis, including those that have been resolved and those that remain unaddressed and still pose risks for investors.

A summary of this flash talk can be downloaded here.

An October to Forget?

Stock markets around the globe “corrected” in October, experiencing a sudden and broad-based drop. The sell-off was somewhat unusual as there was no glaring fundamental event that triggered the market drop, but rather a confluence of events that all seemed to come to the forefront of investors’ minds simultaneously. These concerns, coming on the heels of a strong third quarter for stocks that left the market looking modestly overvalued, led to an unpleasant month of returns.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Buying the Dip Takes a Hit

Historically, investors have attempted to capitalize from market drops by buying at the new lows in hopes that the stocks would rebound shortly thereafter. “Buying the dip” has generally proven effective ­— albeit by small margins — however 2018 has been an interesting exception. Notably, October’s steady trend downward has caused 2018 to flip into the red; through September, the “buy the dip” theory was still rewarded.

Our chart tracks data back nearly twenty years, through 1999, and throughout this data set the only other negative calendar years were 2000–2002. This suggests that currently, investors may be more leery of equity markets and less optimistic that the markets will rebound after a negative day. While investor sentiment certainly impacts the market, this is only a short-term bearish indicator. Midterm elections are right around the corner and historically the November of midterm election years has outperformed Novembers of other years, giving investors some optimism of what the end of 2018 may have in store for their portfolios.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Defined Contribution Plan Legislative Update – 4Q 2018

Retirement savings has been a major theme on Capitol Hill this year. To better prepare our defined contribution plan sponsor clients for upcoming regulatory changes, we provide legislative updates on a bi-annual basis. For a broader view of Marquette’s approach to defined contribution consulting, see our previous research including A Roadmap for Defined Contribution Plan Sponsors and Defined Contribution Plans: A Look at the Past, Present & Future.

In this update, we summarize the following legislation and provide an overview of next steps for DC plan sponsors:

  • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
  • The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018
  • Executive Order on Strengthening Retirement Security in America
  • IRS Private Letter: Student Loan Benefit Program

Download PDF> Defined Contribution Plan Legislative Update – 4Q 2018

As always, your consultant will be able to address any specific questions you may have regarding these changes.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Market Anomaly or the Beginning of the End?

So far, October has been a forgettable month for equity performance. Internet and technology companies — once the darling of this rally — have been among the hardest hit, as many investors appear to be taking profits as signs of slower earnings and economic growth have started to appear. Meanwhile, industrial companies have also been hit hard, as trade war rhetoric continues to grow between China and Washington, and China’s GDP growth was its weakest since the financial crisis. Through Wednesday, the materials, energy, industrials, and technology sectors all are in correction territory, with the following losses:

  • Materials: -13.0%
  • Energy: -12.5%
  • Industrials: -11.6%
  • Technology: -10.8%

Not surprisingly, volatility — as measured by the VIX index — has skyrocketed as equities have sold off.

More generally, October’s sell-off has been related to the health of the global economy; investors appear concerned about rising U.S. interest rates, a strong U.S. dollar, slowing global growth and trade wars. Only time will tell if October is part of a larger sell-off in global markets and the end of a nine-year bull market in the U.S., or just an anomaly. Going forward, investors will dissect third quarter earnings and be focused on company guidance going into 2019. If growth prospects for 2019 look tepid, many expect this sell-off to continue into year-end and the VIX to remain elevated.

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.