The Calm Before the Storm?

October 22, 2025 | Greg Leonberger, FSA, EA, MAAA, FCA, Partner, Director of Research

I spent the past weekend at my alma mater to watch them play their biggest rival. Football weekends there are filled with celebrations, traditions, and of course, tailgating. Saturday was a quintessential Midwestern day to be outside: sunny, low 70s, light breeze — no better conditions for food and drinks in the parking lot. About three hours before kickoff, however, massive thunderstorms rolled in which sent fans scurrying for cover and threatened to delay the game. For fans who hadn’t checked the forecast, they were ill-prepared to stay dry and enjoy the game as it rained for the duration of the match. Nonetheless, the stadium stayed full for the entire game, a testament to the home team’s performance as well as fan loyalty. That said, I saw plenty of cold and wet attendees in the concourse after the game — those who weren’t equipped for the conditions undoubtedly wished they had been better prepared for what the environment brought Saturday.

On my drive home Sunday, I couldn’t help but worry if as investors we find ourselves right where I was Saturday afternoon, wondering if the conditions were too good to be true for a mid-October day in the Midwest.

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