Category: Chart of the Week

Warning Signs From the Bond Market?

Viewed by many on Wall Street as the “smart money,” the bond market often serves as a leading indicator for the stock market in search of future direction. In 2007, it was the bond market that was first to flash warning signs of a looming crisis as stocks continued their steady upward march.

Viewed by many on Wall Street as the “smart money,” the bond market often serves as a leading indicator for the stock market in search of future direction. In 2007, it was the bond market that was first to flash warning signs of a looming crisis as stocks continued their steady upward march. Investment grade corporate spreads reached their tightest point of 82 basis points in late February 2007. By the time the S&P 500 peaked later that year in October, corporate spreads had widened out to nearly 140 basis points. As the crisis bottomed in early 2009, it was again the bond market that was first to reverse course. Corporate spreads reached their widest point in early December 2008 and it wasn’t until March 2009 that the stock market found a bottom.

As equities have once again approached their all time highs, the bond market may serve as a useful reference for investors looking to the future. Corporate spreads tightened to the mid 130’s at the beginning of January 2013 and have remained there while stocks continue to rise. Although there is room for spreads to tighten further before reaching the lows set during previous peaks in the equity markets, any dramatic reversal in equity prices will likely be preceded by their bond counterparts.

Speed Bump Ahead?

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a new nominal high this week and the CBOE Volatility Index below 14, the financial news media has been beset with headlines about the recent rally in the U.S. equity markets. Analysts’ views on the sustainability of the rally are mixed, but it is not uncommon to hear market experts warn of a pullback to interrupt the recent rally.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a new nominal high this week and the CBOE Volatility Index below 14, the financial news media has been beset with headlines about the recent rally in the U.S. equity markets. Analysts’ views on the sustainability of the rally are mixed, but it is not uncommon to hear market experts warn of a pullback to interrupt the recent rally. While some may be pointing to underlying fundamentals or economic data, one could simply point to history as an indicator. This week’s chart looks at the maximum intra-year drawdown for the S&P 500 Index1  for the last 30 years.

Since 1983, the S&P 500 Index has only had five negative calendar years. Despite this fact, 25 out of the last 30 calendar years have had an intra-year drawdown of more than -7%, and the median calendar year maximum drawdown over the last 30 years was just over -10%. Year to date in 2013, the maximum drawdown is -2.8%. Therefore, based on this data, it seems reasonable that we will see a larger drawdown at some point this year. While returns may come in above 8% again for 2013, it is unlikely that the markets will rise at a steady pace each week.

1We use the S&P 500 instead of Dow Jones Industrial Average because it is a more commonly used benchmark by institutional investors

More Signs of Life for the U.S. Economy

In spite of the most recent bad macroeconomic news coming out of Europe and Italy (to say nothing of the sequester here in the U.S.), we continue to see reasons for optimism in the U.S. economy. This week’s chart of the week unveils the latest home prices and consumer confidence increases reported earlier this week.

In spite of the most recent bad macroeconomic news coming out of Europe and Italy (to say nothing of the sequester here in the U.S.), we continue to see reasons for optimism in the U.S. economy. This week’s chart of the week unveils the latest home prices and consumer confidence increases reported earlier this week. In looking at the S&P/Case-Shiller index, the leading measure of U.S. housing prices, we see that prices were up 0.9% in December and 6.8% for the year compared to analyst expectations of 6.6%. In addition, January new home purchases skyrocketed by 15.6% from December’s reading. Collectively, the recent increases in the Case-Shiller Index, new home purchases, and consumer confidence are indicative of signs of life in the U.S. economy and may suggest further appreciation in the housing market.

Rising Gold Prices Fail to Benefit Gold Mining Companies

This week’s Chart of the Week compares gold prices to the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Index. Typically, most investors would expect gold mining company returns to closely track those of gold prices.

This week’s Chart of the Week compares gold prices to the MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Index. Typically, most investors would expect gold mining company returns to closely track those of gold prices. Perhaps surprising is that our chart shows that since 2010, gold prices have increased 52% while the gold miners index is down 8% over the same time-period.

Theoretically, gold mining company and gold returns should be relatively similar. In reality, though, there are many factors that cause a divergence between the two prices. For example, many mining companies will hedge a portion of their underlying commodity exposures, thus causing their earnings to vary. In addition, there are large capital costs involved with mining gold which can prevent a company from realizing the full benefits of rising gold prices.

Despite the continued lag in performance, gold miners appear attractively priced with a forward P/E ratio of 9.591. However, this week’s chart illustrates that investing directly in the bullion is the only way to ensure investors receive pure exposure to gold’s returns.

1 MSCI

Interest Rates the Fertilizer for Farmland Prices?

This week’s chart of the week looks at the growth in mid-west farmland prices. Our chart shows the increase in farmland prices in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and the Federal Reserve 7th District, which includes all three of these states.

This week’s chart of the week looks at the growth in mid-west farmland prices. Our chart shows the increase in farmland prices in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and the Federal Reserve 7th District, which includes all three of these states. While this may surprise many investors, mid-west farmland has been one of the best performing investments over the last decade, up 12.3% annually. Higher crop prices and a shrinking supply of available high quality farmland drove this increase in farmland prices. Since both of these trends seem likely to persist into the future, institutional investors have begun to invest in farmland to take advantage of these trends. However, as our chart shows, the other driver of higher prices has been the persistent fall in interest rates which lowers the carrying costs (i.e. interest payments) of owning farmland for both farmers and investors. Given the recent rise in interest rates over the last few months it seems reasonable to question if farmland prices can continue their upward trajectory without the benefit of further reductions in interest rates.

Interest Rates Jump in 2013

This week’s chart is relatively straightforward but reflects some potentially powerful messages for institutional investors. As plainly seen from the chart, 2013 to date has seen a continued run-up in the equity markets (red line): as of February 7, the S&P 500 has returned 5.8% for the year.

This week’s chart is relatively straightforward but reflects some potentially powerful messages for institutional investors. As plainly seen from the chart, 2013 to date has seen a continued run-up in the equity markets (red line): as of February 7, the S&P 500 has returned 5.8% for the year. While this is good news for all investors, it is the jump in interest rates that holds more of a mixed message for investors.

Since the end of 2012, interest rates (as measured by the yield on the 10-year Treasury) have increased by about 22 basis points, a notable jump that led to losses for most core bond strategies. If the equity markets continue their upward trend, we expect further upward movements in interest rates, which will be dilutive for bond investors. Adding some exposure to floating rate bonds (such as bank loans) may help to offset these rate increases.

However, higher interest rates are not all bad news. Pension funds that report liabilities at market rates (primarily corporate plans) actually saw their funded ratios increase as a result of higher rates, given the relative mismatch between the durations of their assets and liabilities.

No Longer the Apple of Investor’s Eye

Apple (AAPL) shares dropped 12% last week after a disappointing earnings report and are down 37% from their September 2012 peak.

Apple (AAPL) shares dropped 12% last week after a disappointing earnings report and are down 37% from their September 2012 peak. As our Chart of the Week shows, after the recent fall in shares of Apple, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is once again the largest company in the S&P 500 index. Apple’s market capitalization first surpassed Exxon’s on August 10, 2011 and at one point Apple’s market capitalization was 57% larger than Exxon’s. Investors that own Apple through a passively managed index are likely to find that their exposure has shrunk considerably over the last few months.

Attractive Level for Bank Loan Discount Margin

This week we look at the historic three year discount margin for bank loans. Bank loans provide a source of financing for public and private corporations as well as private equity firms. They are a floating rate debt obligation generally linked to LIBOR and typically callable with few or no penalties.

This week we look at the historic three year discount margin for bank loans. Bank loans provide a source of financing for public and private corporations as well as private equity firms. They are a floating rate debt obligation generally linked to LIBOR and typically callable with few or no penalties. In comparison to investment grade bonds, bank loans have higher credit and liquidity risk, but lower interest rate risk. In a low rate environment, floating coupons can be attractive to investors.

In 2008 and 2009 liquidity issues caused bank loan prices to drop drastically. This can be seen in the chart, as the price drop drove the three year discount margin to all time highs. Since then, liquidity has improved and the discount margin has come down. In 2012 we saw the discount margin fall from 656 bp to 555 bp. Even with the pronounced decline from 2009, discount margins are still above the long term median of 387 bp. This spread appears to be an enticing option for investors looking to decrease interest rate risk. The discount margin also compares favorably with high yield bonds, and based on early data, institutional investors have begun to swap high yield investments for bank loans.

Is Forward P/E Ratio a Good Predictor for Market Returns?

Today’s Chart of the Week looks at the historic level of the S&P 500 Index relative to the forward estimated price-to-earnings (“P/E”) ratio of the S&P 500 from January 1, 2006 to January 15, 2013. The purpose of this chart is to see whether or not the forward looking P/E ratio can predict performance of the index.

Today’s Chart of the Week looks at the historic level of the S&P 500 Index relative to the forward estimated price-to-earnings (“P/E”) ratio of the S&P 500 from January 1, 2006 to January 15, 2013. The purpose of this chart is to see whether or not the forward looking P/E ratio can predict performance of the index. The P/E ratio compares the value of the share price to estimated earnings per share over the subsequent year. A higher P/E suggests that the market may be approaching a downturn, while a lower P/E may represent a buying opportunity and potential for market gains. Over the last seven years, the forward P/E ratio has averaged 12.5 (depicted in green).

The correlation between forward P/E ratio and the following one year return has been negative, which is to be expected: as suggested above, lower P/E ratios are typically followed by a rising market, while higher P/E ratios have predicted negative returns. Looking at the chart, we see that this basic intuition is supported: low P/E ratios are followed by rising markets. However, the correlation has not been especially strong, with a value of -.39 for the seven years studied in this analysis. More importantly, the correlation has not been stable over this time period, thus making the reliance on forward P/E ratios to predict market performance relatively useless. Certainly, outliers of this ratio – such as its extreme low value on March 9, 2009 (the date that the market bottomed following the financial crisis) – have been useful indicators of extreme market conditions, but they have not proven to be a consistent market predictor.

Therefore, inference of 2013 stock market performance based upon the most recent figure of 11.9 (below the long term average of 12.5) is not meaningful. As much as we would like to extract a precise prediction for the following year’s stock market performance, the relationship between the two variables is not strong enough to predict future performance.

Projected Trends in Employment

This week’s Chart of the Week shows projected trends for non-agriculture employment in the U.S. by major industry sectors over the 2010-2020 timeframe. Every two years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates labor force trends over a 10-year period.

This week’s Chart of the Week shows projected trends for non-agriculture employment in the U.S. by major industry sectors over the 2010-2020 timeframe. Every two years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates labor force trends over a 10-year period. BLS employment estimates are based on projected changes in both population growth and labor force participation rates within U.S. demographic groups.

Notable employment changes during this time include health care and social assistance (5.6 Mil), professional and business services (3.8 Mil), and construction (1.8 Mil). Nearly half of the projected job growth during 2010-2020 is expected to come from health care / social assistance and professional and business services. Despite strong projected growth in the construction industry, employment is not expected to reach pre-recession levels. Federal government employment is expected to lose approximately 370K jobs with nearly half of those reductions coming from the Postal Service.

The latest release, from February 2012, reflects key demographic changes taking place in the U.S. over the next 10 years. A slower rate of growth within the U.S. population, the continued aging of the baby-boom generation, and decreases in labor force participation rates are expected. These changes will have an effect on both the rate of growth within the U.S. economy as well as which industries will be the driving force of that growth.