Category: White Paper

Fixed Income, (Eventually) Rising Rates and the (Non) Universal Law of “Bond Gravity”

In describing some of the strategies and portfolio frameworks that investors could consider for the management of their duration, liquidity, and credit exposures in anticipation of rising rates, we will address the potential benefits and also highlight some likely risks that should not be overlooked.

While we cannot predict exactly when and by how much rates will rise, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has recently signaled that we could see a modest increase in the fed funds rate by mid-2015. Given the increased possibility of rates rising over the next few years, investors should not retreat in fear from bonds en masse or look to underweight their fixed income allocations to anemic levels. Instead, they should continue to view fixed income as strategically important: after all, fixed income is a broad asset class with a diverse opportunity set. And, while we will summarize our views on some different sub-asset classes in this paper (including floating rate bonds, non-U.S. debt and convertibles), for additional reading on non-core fixed income sub-asset classes, please refer to our previously released papers on global fixed income, emerging markets debt, high yield, and senior secured loans.

In respecting the broadness of our client base, we seek to avoid a one-size-fits-all narrative on how they could look to manage their bond allocations: some clients will be limited in their ability to access certain sub-asset classes while others will have ample room and resources to maneuver across the choice spectrum. Consequently, there are a number of prudent approaches and strategies for these different types of investors to explore as a means of hedging their interest rate risk. The key is establishing which portfolio framework or sub-asset class exposure is the best fit for their programs and in line with their circumstances, risk tolerances, and investment goals.

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High Yield, Bank Loans, and Non-Agency RMBS for 2014-2015

The following paper analyzes current valuation levels as well as future return prospects over the next few years for High Yield, Bank Loans and Non-Agency RMBS.

Given the ongoing low interest rate environment, fixed income investors continue their unprecedented quests for yield. With the persistent slow growth in the U.S., necessary monetary easing in Europe and Japan, and the sustained slowdown in China, U.S. rates that were previously expected to rise moderately in 2014 and 2015 are now projected to rise at a much slower pace, if not remain range-bound. As a result, we expect continued strong interest in the fixed income sectors that have offered the most appealing yields and returns over the last five years: high yield, bank loans, and non-agency residential mortgage backed securities. The following paper analyzes current valuation levels as well as future return prospects over the next few years.

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Emerging Market Debt

This paper explores EMD as an asset class, focusing on the benefits and risks. Further, EMD characteristics and their impact on portfolio dynamics are discussed. Recommendations as well as guidance toward making an allocation to the asset class are included.

Due to risks, uncertainty, and overall lack of credit quality, institutional investors have not historically included emerging market debt (“EMD”) in their portfolios. However, the investment landscaped has changed over the past few years. Driven by low interest rates and deteriorating fundamentals in the United States and other developed countries, investors’ interest in EMD has skyrocketed in recent years.

This paper explores EMD as an asset class, focusing on the benefits and risks. Further, EMD characteristics and their impact on portfolio dynamics are discussed. Recommendations, as well as guidance toward making an allocation to the asset class, are included.

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In Search of Opportunity for Active U.S. Equity Managers

This paper seeks to determine if there are areas of public equity markets that are “less efficient” and thus potentially conducive to active investing. Without taking a stance on the active versus passive debate, this paper asks, “if you plan to hire an active manager, what is the best place to start looking?”

As we highlighted in a recent newsletter (Passive Strategies Gaining in Popularity), institutional investors continue to shift their U.S. equity allocations away from actively managed strategies and into index funds. The support for this shift has been proven by academic research as well as recent investment experience. This paper does not question the validity of passive investing approaches. Accepting that it is difficult at best to beat a market that is relatively efficient, this paper nonetheless seeks to determine if there are areas of public equity markets that are “less efficient” and thus potentially conducive to active investing. Without taking a stance on the active versus passive debate, this paper asks, “if you plan to hire an active manager, what is the best place to start looking?” The following paper is broken up into multiple sections. First, the workhorse of active equity manager evaluation, Fama-French factor analysis, is introduced. Next, active managers with different size and style biases are examined to search for pockets of alpha. Finally, additional thoughts and conclusions are provided for investors.

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Global Equity Position Paper

The following paper examines global equity as an asset class, focusing on justifications and concerns for investing globally rather than via a traditional partitioned U.S. and non-U.S. approach. Furthermore, relative performance, risks, and meaningful outperformance from active management are also considered. Ultimately, this paper strives to investigate the theoretical reasons for global investing and whether these same arguments hold true in reality.

As economies and capital markets become increasingly more integrated, interest in global equity investing has soared over the past few years, making some U.S. institutional investors question the traditional partitioned approach of U.S. and non-U.S. equity allocations. Over the last ten years, allocations to global equity mandates (as a percentage of new commitments to global and international funds) have risen from 6% in 2000 to almost 40% by 2011.1 In essence, U.S. investors have increased global equity mandates as a percentage of their total equity allocations, meaning a shift from a partitioned U.S., non-U.S. approach to a global program.

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Global Bonds Position Paper

Over the last several years institutional investors have adjusted their fixed income portfolios to include significant allocations to global bonds. This trend represents a regime shift from prior years when bond portfolios were mostly concentrated on U.S. issuers. However, as the trend has gained momentum, so has the need to truly understand global bonds and how they can impact a portfolio. In this paper, we outline our position on investing in global bonds from the perspective of a U.S.-based investor.

The following paper examines global equity as an asset class, focusing on justifications and concerns for investing globally rather than via a traditional partitioned U.S. and non-U.S.
approach. Furthermore, relative performance, risks, and meaningful outperformance from active management are also considered. Ultimately, this paper strives to investigate the theoretical reasons for global investing and whether these same arguments hold true in reality.

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Portfolio Rebalancing Guide

Failure to rebalance a portfolio can lead to a much different risk and return profile than suggested by the original asset allocation. Although straightforward in concept, the topic of rebalancing is not always understood, most especially its importance in times of market stress. In this paper, we address the most common rebalancing programs utilized by investors, and investigate the advantages of each.

Regularly rebalancing portfolios is one of the key duties of trustees and other fiduciaries responsible for managing institutional portfolios. Asset allocations are set to provide a predetermined risk/reward profile that fits a fund’s objectives and constraints. Portfolios are rebalanced when they drift away from policy target in order to maintain the risk/reward profile implicit in the original asset allocation. How often should clients rebalance their portfolios? What guidelines should clients use to determine when to rebalance? What are the costs and benefits associated with rebalancing? This paper takes a rigorous look at rebalancing, and provides some guidelines for implementing a rebalancing policy.

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LDI Position Paper Part 2 (of 2)

LDI Position Paper Part 2 (of 2). Intended as a resource for plan sponsors who have decided to implement an LDI strategy, and covers the practical issues surrounding implementation and maintenance, along with risks.

Over the last five years, Liability Driven Investing (“LDI”) has grown in popularity as an investment strategy for pension plan sponsors. Our two part position paper series on LDI takes a close look at LDI strategies, with an emphasis on the “if” and “how”: deciding IF an LDI strategy is appropriate for a given pension plan, and if so, HOW it should be implemented. In Part I, we examined the motivations for LDI strategies, and which types of plans are best suited to adopt an LDI mandate. Part II is intended as a resource for plan sponsors who have decided to implement an LDI strategy, and covers the practical issues surrounding implementation and maintenance, along with risks. Ultimately, the following paper should help plan sponsors decide if an LDI strategy is appropriate for their plans.

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LDI Position Paper Part 1 (of 2)

LDI Position Paper Part 1 (of 2).  Examines the motivations for LDI strategies, and which types of plans are best suited to adopt an LDI mandate.

Over the last five years, Liability Driven Investing (“LDI”) has grown in popularity as an investment strategy for pension plan sponsors. Our two part position paper series on LDI takes a close look at LDI strategies, with an emphasis on the “if” and “how”: deciding IF an LDI strategy is appropriate for a given pension plan, and if so, HOW it should be implemented. In Part I, we examine the motivations for LDI strategies, and which types of plans are best suited to adopt an LDI mandate. We also cover a progressive series of LDI portfolios to demonstrate how they can help control funded status risk. Ultimately, the following paper should help plan sponsors decide if an LDI strategy is appropriate for their plans.

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Commodities Position Paper

Explores commodities as an investment, focusing on investment vehicles, the sources and attributes of historical risk and return, and commodities’ place in an investment portfolio.

Skyrocketing commodity prices combined with the poor performance of equities have led to an increased interest in commodity allocations. Commodities have not historically been part of an institutional investor’s asset allocation, and some even question whether commodities are an asset class.

This paper will explore commodities as an investment, focusing on investment vehicles, the sources and attributes of historical risk and return, and commodities’ place in an investment portfolio. Commodities as an investment are introduced and then the mechanics of long-only futures positions are explained. Next, the drivers of individual commodity returns and portfolios of commodity positions are examined. Finally, commodities are analyzed in the context of a balanced portfolio.

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