09.16.2021

Private Credit: Consistency is Key

We are all familiar with adages like “consistency is the key to success” and “excellence is mundane”. For private credit,…

09.08.2021

Taking the PEPP Out of the Eurozone’s Recovery?

Amid concerns over the Delta variant and signs of a sharp slowdown in the global economic rebound, many central banks…

09.01.2021

The Turn of the SKEW

Domestic stock indices have rebounded from pandemic-induced lows exhibited in the spring of 2020 with relative ease, and U.S. equity…

Two-line chart showing unemployment and job openings. Chart subtitle: The number of job openings in the U.S. now exceeds the number of people unemployed. Chart description: Y-axis shows number in millions, from 0 to 25. X-axis shows date from December 2000 to July 2021, labeled in increments of nine months. Blue line shows number of people unemployed. Orange line shows number of job openings, As described in the accompanying text, in recent months, the number of job openings has exceeded the number of unemployed people. Chart source: Bloomberg.

08.26.2021

What Does the Labor Shortage Mean for Inflation?

Employers have faced a number of challenges throughout the COVID-19 pandemic — most recently, a labor shortage. As of the…

08.19.2021

China: From Leader to Laggard

In 2020, China was a top performer in the global equity market, returning 29.5%. In 2021, however, Chinese equities have…

Three-line chart showing Consumer Price Index year-over-year growth (representing actual inflation) and 2- and 5-year breakeven inflation rate (measuring difference in yield between U.S. Treasury bonds and TIPS of the same maturity). Chart subtitle: CPI and breakeven inflation rate data can help shape future inflation expectations Chart description: Y-axis shows range of percentages from -6% to +6%. X-axis shows years from 2004 to present (though labeled by year, so final label is 2020). Headline CPI Y/Y is green line; 2-Year Breakeven is purple; 5-Year Breakeven is teal. Labels on chart highlight that Y/Y headline CPI peaked twice after 2008's financial crisis. In 2011, the 5-year breakeven fell below 2-year breakeven as leading indicator of CPI declining and normalizing a year later. Most recently, Y/Y headline CPI running hot again but potentially plateauing and the 5-year breakeven is already below the 2-year breakeven and both potentially plateauing. Chart sources: Marquette Research, Bloomberg; latest available as of August 13, 2021.

08.18.2021

Where is Inflation Headed?

Despite a number of commodity prices, including lumber, corn, and pork, retreating from recent highs, inflation remains a key focus…

Chinese equities were down in July amid new regulatory restrictions

08.10.2021

Chinese Equities Sold Off in July

In 2020, China was a top performer in the global equity market, returning 29.5%. In 2021, however, Chinese equities have…

08.04.2021

What Might an Earnings Peak Mean?

S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 30% year-to-date has completely eclipsed that of the last 10 years. This is in…

Column/line chart showing PE fund size step-ups and increased fund sizes. Chart subtitle: Private equity fund size step-ups have remained consistent over the last decade. Chart description: Left y-axis ranges percent from 0-100%. X-axis goes by years from 2007 to 1H2021. Columns in purple show % PE Funds Raising Greater Fund Size; line in gray shows Median % Fund Size Step-Up. Ranges for both categories are fairly consistent; columns hover near 70% and line has larger range but has hovered between 30% and 51% for the past ten years. The lowest year for both categories was 2010, with 65% and 22% respectively. As of 1H2021, 72% of PE funds are raising greater fund sizes and the median fund size step-up is 48%. Chart source: Pitchbook 2Q 2021 U.S. PE Breakdown.

07.29.2021

Private Equity Staying Rational with Fund Sizes

Despite strong fundraising numbers in recent years, private equity managers in the U.S. have stayed consistent with subsequent fund size…

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