Services Tags: Investment Consulting

Signs of a Market Bottom?

In just a matter of weeks, U.S. equities went from all-time highs to bear market correction territory. As of March 20th, the S&P 500 had a drawdown of -31.9% from its February 19th high. Following the steep sell-off, equities subsequently rallied the week of March 23rd, logging weekly gains that were among their best in history. With equities having officially fallen into correction territory then subsequently appearing to show signs of stabilization and fiscal/monetary stimulus poised to (theoretically) cushion the impact of COVID-19, investors are left to wonder if the worst is over.

However, identifying market bottoms is a difficult endeavor. Every bear market is unique and this one is no different. Based on the severity of economic contraction thus far, it is likely that we are headed for — or possibly already in — a recession. Notably, though, not all bear markets coincide with a recession and not all recessions coincide with a bear market. Given that a recession is looming if not already here, we examined the last 40 years of data when bear markets coincided with recessions to see if we can identify signs of a bottom. Over the past 40 years, there were four such periods: 1973–1975, 1981–1982, 2000–2001, and 2007–2009. In the following newsletter, we review four categories of data over these time periods: technical, valuation, economic, and COVID-19 to see if we can identify consistent indicators of a market bottom.

Read > Signs of a Market Bottom?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

 

April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

With March officially in the books, the following is a brief summary of what has transpired in the capital markets since our update early last week. As expected, the coronavirus has exploded across the U.S. and continued its spread across Europe as well. At the time of writing, the number of cases is approaching 1 million worldwide and has exceeded 200,000 here in the United States. Stocks finished their worst quarter ever on Tuesday and volatility continues to haunt the markets. While the worst may still not yet be behind us, we hope that the growing number of shelter in place edicts and more consistent social distancing may help to stem the coronavirus outbreak across the world. Please note that all return data in the following discussion utilizes the quarter end date of March 31st, 2020.

Read > April 2nd Update: A Quarter That Will Go Down in History

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

In the early hours of March 25th, the Senate and the Trump administration reached a deal on the $2 trillion stimulus package aimed at cushioning the fall for U.S. businesses and consumers in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The bill was approved by the Senate late on March 25th, passed through the House on March 27th, and was signed by Trump the afternoon of March 27th. The size of the package is over 9% of the U.S. GDP and is greater than the three major relief packages passed during the 2008 crisis combined.

This legislative update summarizes the key elements of the CARES Act and concludes with an assessment of the expected impact of this stimulus package.

Read > The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Following China’s Lead?

Year-to-date, China has suffered the least among global equity markets, down 18%. In comparison, the U.S. and Eurozone have produced losses greater than 30%. Why have Chinese equities outperformed? Does that performance provide us with any insights into future expected returns? In this newsletter, we will examine several data points to provide some possible answers to these questions, including a look at coronavirus case counts, the latest PMI numbers, and monetary and fiscal measures.

Read > Following China’s Lead?

As always, please reach out to your consultant or our research team for more details about any of the information in this newsletter. For more Marquette coverage on COVID-19, please view the Coronavirus Updates topic on our Research page.

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

An Analysis of Bear Markets and Recoveries

After reaching a high of 3,386 on February 19th, the longest bull market in history officially made a record fall into bear market territory in the span of just 16 trading days and only a few days after its 11th anniversary. The S&P 500 has now been in a bear market, defined as a decline of 20% or more, for nearly a week. So when should we expect the market to hit bottom? And when will this decline end?

This newsletter uses historical data to provide guidance and explanation of bear markets and their subsequent recoveries, including a detailed look at S&P 500 performance, small-cap performance, volatility, and valuations. While no one knows the specifics of how the future will play out, the data we’ve compiled offers perspective on what the typical bear market correction is, how far we are from that level, worst case scenarios, and possible opportunities to buy equities at attractive prices.

Read > An Analysis of Bear Markets and Recoveries

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Back to Square One: Fed Cuts Rates to Zero, Market Responds

In response to the Fed’s emergency rate cut of 100 basis points over the weekend that brought the target fed funds rate to 0.00%–0.25%, the S&P 500 plunged 12% on Monday (March 16th). This is likely a sign that the markets believe that monetary stimulus is not enough to stave off a coronavirus-triggered recession.

The following newsletter includes Marquette’s assessment of the situation as well as perspectives on liquidity, fiscal stimulus, positioning, and expectations for the economy and financial markets in the coming months.

Read > Back to Square One: Fed Cuts Rates to Zero, Market Responds

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Eric Gaylord Speaking at Investment Management Institute DC Literacy Summit 2/13

On Wednesday, February 13, Eric Gaylord, CFA, will be speaking at Investment Management Institute’s first DC Literacy Summit in Stamford, Connecticut.

Eric will join two other panelists in a discussion entitled, “How Should Employee Education Work?” reviewing the role, process, and practical use of education for defined contribution plan participants.

The DC Literacy Summit brings together institutional investors, consultants, and asset managers to exchange ideas and solutions for program structure and development, particularly with new participants and younger employees. IMI is a leading education and research organization servicing institutional investors and wealthy families internationally.

For more information, please visit the event web page.

 

The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

This weekend’s clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the OPEC meeting launched an oil price war that saw prices plummet over 20% with oil now trading at approximately $35 per barrel. This is salt on the wound for the global markets as coronavirus cases roughly tripled last week in the U.S., Europe, and the rest of Asia outside of China. Somewhat predictably, the S&P 500 suffered its biggest drop yesterday (March 9th) since 2008, dropping 7.6%; this was the 19th largest drop in its history.

This newsletter updates investors on yesterday’s market turbulence and in particular provides a projected outlook for core bonds’ expected returns in 2020. While the path forward from yesterday is unknown, the analysis included should hopefully provide investors some guidance on potential paths and returns for the remainder of the year.

Read > The Oil Price War and Coronavirus: What Does it Mean for Bond Returns?

 

The opinions expressed herein are those of Marquette Associates, Inc. (“Marquette”), and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to purchase or sell any product. Marquette reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs.

Marquette Associates Continues to Expand Wealth Consulting Capabilities

CHICAGO, IL, February 13, 2019 – Marquette Associates, Inc. today announced plans to expand its wealth consulting offerings with an ownership interest in Milwaukee-based investment adviser, Operose Advisors LLC.

“Providing a high net worth solution built upon our institutional approach has been a key focus of our long-term strategy over the last number of years,” said Brian Wrubel, President & CEO of Marquette. “Operose shares our culture of client service and our investment philosophy. This partnership creates an integrated solution for private clients with assets ranging between $1-25 million and small market investment advisory opportunities.”

Operose Advisors provides investment advisory and wealth management services to individuals, families, trusts, and closely-held businesses. By partnering with Operose, Marquette will establish its fifth office and continue to expand its presence in Wisconsin. Managing Partner Nicholas Bauer, CFA, leads Operose Advisors and has 20 years of investment experience. He and his team in Milwaukee will ensure continuity of service, while leveraging Marquette’s institutional model and benefiting from added resources.

Marquette also welcomed Aimee O’Connor, CFP® as a senior vice president in January to continue expanding the firm’s ultra-high net worth/family office capabilities based in Chicago. As a senior investment consultant, Aimee is involved in the daily management and administration of Marquette’s private client relationships. She has 14 years of investment experience including work as an independent consultant working with RIAs, family offices, and high net worth individuals. Previously, she was the co-director of consulting and senior consultant at DiMeo Schneider & Associates.

“We are excited at the opportunity to add Aimee to our team. Her considerable background working with private clients is a great fit as we steadily grow this part of our business,” said Wrubel. “The partnership with Operose, and the addition of Aimee, uniquely positions Marquette to offer a cost-effective, institutional approach for private families of all sizes.”

About Operose Advisors
Operose Advisors LLC is an investment adviser registered with the State of Wisconsin. We are dedicated to growing the wealth, knowledge and professional networks of the clients we serve by employing an institutional approach to wealth management.

About Marquette Associates
Marquette Associates is a Chicago-based, independent investment consulting firm that guides institutional investment programs with a focused client service approach and careful research. Marquette has served a single mission since 1986 – enable institutions to be more effective investment stewards. Marquette places client fiduciary duties first through complete independence and 100% employee ownership. The firm currently serves more than 385 clients with over $182 billion in assets – from public funds, unions and corporations to endowments, foundations and other non-profits. For more information, please visit www.marquetteassociates.com.

Contact:
Brian M. Wrubel, 312.527.5500
bwrubel@marquetteassociates.com

Print Update

Marquette Associates Ownership Update

CHICAGO, IL, February 8, 2019 – Marquette Associates, Inc. today announced an update to the firm’s succession plan in a continuing effort to strengthen the firm’s stability and ongoing growth. The three largest shareholders will sell 30% of their ownership to the existing shareholder base. The current leadership at Marquette will remain in place – there are no planned retirements and the firm will remain under the leadership of President & CEO Brian Wrubel for the foreseeable future.

“Marquette has always been defined by our people, our client service and our independence. We have a talented group of investment professionals that are assuming more active leadership responsibilities and as an employee-owned firm, we are accountable to our clients and to each other and have worked since our founding in 1986 to grow the firm responsibly and with our clients’ interests at the forefront,” said Wrubel. “This restructuring acknowledges our commitment to Marquette’s next generation of leaders and is an important step for Marquette in continuing to broaden and diversify the firm’s ownership base.”

With the ambiguity that has become common within the investment consulting industry surrounding consolidation and outside capital, Marquette remains committed to independent ownership and transparency for its clients. The firm strongly believes that the talent, discipline, and care demonstrated by its managing partners will secure its position as one of the leading employee-owned investment consulting firms for years to come.

About Marquette Associates
Marquette Associates is a Chicago-based, independent investment consulting firm that guides institutional investment programs with a focused client service approach and careful research. Marquette has served a single mission since 1986 – enable institutions to be more effective investment stewards. Marquette places client fiduciary duties first through complete independence and 100% employee ownership. The firm currently serves more than 385 clients with over $182 billion in assets – from public funds, unions and corporations to endowments, foundations and other non-profits. For more information, please visit www.marquetteassociates.com.

Contact:
Brian M. Wrubel, 312.527.5500
bwrubel@marquetteassociates.com

Print Update